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Ranking all 32 NFL teams in tiers pre-2020 season


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Now that we have passed the opt-out deadline and are only about three weeks away from the Chiefs and Texans kicking off the 2020 NFL season, I wanted to put together my pre-season power rankings and put all 32 teams in separate tiers, to give you an idea of where I see them at this point.
When putting together this list, I considered the talent on the roster, coaching staff and what will be a more important factor coming into this season than it has been in previous – the continuity as a franchise, since the COVID situation has limited the amount of preparation and ability to build chemistry as a team. That will be especially tough for new head coaches and inexperienced teams.
With that being said, this is how I would group them:

Super Bowl contenders:

This group of four represents what I think are the four elite teams in the NFL. They all feature complete rosters, excellent coaching and continuity as a franchise. I think these are the franchises that will most likely square up against each other in the conference championship games on either side of the bracket.

1. Kansas City Chiefs
We have heard this many times over the course of the offseason – the reigning Super Bowl champs bring back 20 of 22 starters (actually 19 now) on offense and defense combined. They have the best player in the league, the most dangerous receiving corp, above-average O-line play and a still improving defense, that just added some much-needed speed at the second level, which will allow DC Steve Spagnuolo to even more versatile. So at this point I can not have anybody unseat them. I think Clyde Edwards-Helaire (LSU) will be a star in that offense, they get a couple of guys back that missed their playoff run and there are plenty of young, developing players on that roster. What general manager Brett Veach has done this offseason in terms of securing Patrick Mahomes for the next decade and still opening up cap room to also sign their best defensive player in Chris Jones is amazing to me. My only two concerns for Kansas City at this point are a lack of depth in the secondary and the fact they will have to go on the road when they face the four best teams on their schedule – Baltimore, Buffalo, Tampa Bay and New Orleans, which has me favoring the second team on my list for the number one seed in the AFC and which this year means having one more game in the playoffs on their road to another Super Bowl for Andy Reid’s troops.

2. Baltimore Ravens
Right behind the Chiefs, as the biggest competitor for the AFC is Baltimore. They were the best team in the regular season from this past year, but the Titans handed them only their third loss of the season in the Divisional Round at home. While they did lose what to me is a first-ballot Hall of Fame guard in Marshal Yanda, outside of that the Ravens to me have an even better roster. The reigning MVP Lamar Jackson is only entering his third season in the league, the Ravens just added a top prospect in J.K. Dobbins (Ohio State) to a backfield that set a league-record in rushing yards and some of these young receivers will continue to develop. On defense, they addressed the two areas that needed some help, when they brought in Calais Campbell to boost their pass-rush and two top-six linebackers on my board in the draft (Patrick Queen & Malik Harrison). They may not have as many superstar names as some other teams, but without a full offseason to prepare for it, that Greg Roman offense could be even tougher to stop if Marquise Brown becomes a more dependable deep threat (now fully healthy) and I love how multiple Wink Martindale is with his defense, combining the different pressure looks to go along with more versatile pieces up front and one of the elite secondaries in the game. You combine that with a rising young special teams coordinator in Chris Horton and a great motivator and in-game decision-maker in John Harbaugh – I just can’t find a lot of L’s on their schedule.

3. San Francisco 49ers
Obviously the Super Bowl hangover will be brought up a lot of times with the loser of that contest, but unlike a lot of these teams coming off the big game – yet similar to the actual winners in the Chiefs – John Lynch did a great job re-tooling for the few losses they did have and didn’t overspend on some of their talented guys. Kyle Shanahan to me is the best offensive play-caller and game-designer in football, with a diverse rushing attack and the type of personnel to match it, while Jimmy G, despite some issues, is coming off his first 16-game season in his career. Defensively, they are losing what I thought was their best player in DeForest Buckner, but they did replace him with a top ten prospect in Javon Kinlaw (South Carolina) and Fred Warner is an emerging superstar. Their Seattle-based scheme under Robert Salah may not be very complex, but the Niners have a ferocious pass-rush, fast-flowing linebackers and a great safety tandem to be very sound in their execution. The Deebo Samuel injury is definitely a concern for me and if he doesn’t get back a few weeks into the season, I might drop San Fran a spot or two, plus I don’t love what they have at that second cornerback spot, but as for now I see the recipe that made me predict them winning the NFC West ahead of 2019 and what allowed them to be up double-digits in the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl.

4. New Orleans Saints
One of the themes this offseason for me has been how loaded this Saints roster is and that they just need to win this year. This is the final season with Drew Brees at the helm, they are already in a horrible place with the cap – before that even goes down in 2021 – and to be honest, a lot of their key contributors are getting pretty old now. While I have seen a significant drop-off in the arm-strength of Brees, other than that I don’t see any offense with this Sean Payton-led offense – the front-five is elite, Alvin Kamara should be back to 100 percent as a dynamic dual-threat back and they finally found a number two receiver in Emmanuel Sanders. When healthy, that defensive line is a dominant unit, I think third-round pick Zack Baun (Wisconsin) gives that linebacker group some versatility and they have a lot of experience in the secondary, including a guy I thought would be a future star on the outside in Marshon Lattimore. Before anything else, they need to take care of divisional-rival Tampa Bay – which is a very tough challenge already – but if they can do that, they are fairly in the hunt for the NFC’s top seed. There’s a lot of pressure on this group because of the cap situation, their all-time great QB having his “Last Dance” and brutal playoff losses in recent years, but they have all it takes to finally break through all the way.

Playoff contenders:

This second tier consists of eight teams that to me have only or two holes on their roster, while their coaching gives them an advantage over the majority of teams in the league and they bring back most of their pieces from a year or at least improved in those areas. I expect all but one of these squads to make the playoffs in 2020, as long as they don’t suffer significant injuries along the way.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Number five in the entire league seems pretty high for a team that finished below .500 last season, but this is not just about Tom Brady coming in, but rather the roster Tampa Bay has built around him. To me Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are the top receiver duo in the league, the Bucs arguably have the best tight-end room in the league and the offensive line only got better with superhuman Tristan Wirfs (Iowa) playing one of those spots on the right side. I have talked about this a lot over the offseason, looking at the match between Bruce Arians’ vertical-based passing attack and what Brady is used to, in terms of spreading the field and getting the ball out of his hands quickly. My bet is they go to a bit of hybrid and figure things out. Maybe more importantly, I don’t think people realize what they have put together on defense. Last season the Bucs finished number one against the run, they forced the fifth-most turnovers (28) and tied for sixth with yards per play (5.1) in the league. Todd Bowles is excellent defensive mind, who now enters his second season with as much talent as he has had since his Arizona days. Jameis turned it over 35 times last year (12 more than any other player in the league), while Tom didn’t even crack double-digits once again, and he immediately improves their situational football awareness and overall execution. This is a very dangerous squad.

6. Dallas Cowboys
When you talk about some of the most talented rosters in the league, the Dallas Cowboys come to mind right away – especially on the offensive side of the ball. Dak Prescott now has one of the premiere receiver trios with the selection of Ceedee Lamb (Oklahoma) in the draft, still probably a top-five offensive line and Zeke looking to re-establish himself as a top-tier back, after looking a step slow for most of last season. Defensively they are getting back Leighton Vander Esch, whose energy they desperately missed for stretches last season, and they have a very deep rotation at the defensive line (even though nobody knows what we’ll get from a couple of guys that were out of the league), while Mike Nolan will change things up a little more and get his guys into the face of opposing receivers. We have yet to see how much Mike McCarthy will want to have say in the offensive play-calling, but I like that they retained a young and creative OC in Kellen Moore, and as far as in-game control and CEO duties go, I certainly believe McCarthy is an upgrade. There are some questions with the secondary after the loss of Byron Jones and losing Travis Frederick to retirement hurts, but I think those are things that can be overcome. Something that I think should not be overlooked is the signing of former Rams kicker Greg Zuerlein and his special teams coordinator John Fassel, after converting only 75 percent of their field goal attempts last season (6th-lowest in the league) and missing a couple of crucial kicks.

7. Philadelphia Eagles
Right behind the Cowboys, I have their division rivals from Philadelphia. I think the Eagles actually have a better quarterback, the best defensive player among the two teams in Fletcher Cox and a more experienced secondary. However, with Brandon Brooks out for the season and maybe the worst group of linebackers in the NFL, I could not put this group ahead of Dallas, even though they have come up victorious against them in the big games recently. Last year Carson Wentz carried a group of skill-position players from the practice squad and a banged-up O-line to a division title. This upcoming season he will go from already wasn’t an overly dynamic receiving crew to a group of track stars, most notably with first-round pick Jalen Reagor (TCU) and a hopefully healthy DeSean Jackson, plus Miles Sanders I think is ready to emerge as a star back for Philly. The defense did lose some long-time stalwarts like Malcolm Jenkins and Nigel Bradham, but I loved the addition of Javon Hargreave in the middle to free up the other guys to attack upfield and with Darius Slay as their new CB1, not only does that move everybody one spot lower on the depth chart, but it also finally makes more sense for Jim Schwartz to be as aggressive with those zero-blitzes, since he has the guys to cover. Those two newcomers also fit perfectly when matching up against Dallas, because of an improvement interior run defense and having a guy who can match up with Amari Cooper, after the other guys got toasted for the most part.

8. Buffalo Bills
For the first time in about twenty years, a team not named the Patriots will enter a season as favorites in the AFC East – and it’s actually not that close for me. Buffalo made a switch last season offensively to more 11 personnel and quick-tempo with Brian Daboll moving to the booth. This offseason they finally got the big-armed Josh Allen a dependable deep threat in Stefon Diggs, who averaged 12.0 yards per target last season (second-highest in the league), which – similar to what I just talked about with the corners in Philadelphia – moves everybody else down one spot in the food chain. And I love what they do defensively, with Sean McDermott and Leslie Frazier’s game-plan specific zone pattern coverages, with a versatile secondary to execute those, to go with a deep D-line and two super-rangy linebackers. Even outside the Diggs trade, Buffalo has made some sneaky-good deals since losing that Wildcard game at Houston in such heart-breaking fashion. Whether that is Mario Addison as double-digit sack guy in four straight years, added depth on the O-line or a really solid draft class to complement what they already had. I don’t want to crown them at this point, but to me they are the favorites for the AFC’s number three seed as for right now, since I think the South doesn’t have that clear front-runner to win the majority of their divisional games.

9. Seattle Seahawks
I would have probably had the Hawks as the final team of this group or right at the top of the next one a couple of weeks ago, but after acquiring Jamal Adams, I think they have re-established themselves as that second team in the NFC West, since I had them very close with Arizona originally, I did not love what they did in the first two days of the draft (somewhat of a trend with them), they lost their second-best defensive player at that point in Jadeveon Clowney, I’m not sure if they upgraded on the offensive line and we don’t even if know if Quinton Dunbar will be suspended at this point. With that being said, Seattle has finished above .500 every single year with Russell Wilson under center and while I’m not a fan of their conservative approach offensively, where they don’t allow Russ to throw the ball on first downs and push the tempo a little at times, they are one of the most effective rushing teams and they have two lethal weapons to catch those trademark rainbow balls from the Seahawks QB. Defensively there are still some questions about the edge rush and at second corner spot, but Pete Carroll at least has what he wants most in a team at those positions – competition – and you already saw them go to more two-high looks in coverage than we are used to, telling me they utilize Jamal’s versatile skill-set more than what that strong safety mostly does in that system.

10. Green Bay Packers
The whole Aaron Rodgers-Jordan Love drama has been looming large over the offseason and that has brought us some interesting discussions, but let’s not allow this to take away from the fact Green Bay just had a first-round bye in the playoffs and made it to the NFC title game. While they were 8-1 in one-score games and should regress more towards the mean in terms of the success rate in those close games, the North is still wide open and they have a few things going for themselves – they have the best quarterback in the division, the best offensive line, the most versatile and effective pass rush and a lot of young talent in the secondary. The first-round selection of a future signal-caller aside, I wasn’t too fond of what they did in the draft. Even though I liked Cincinnati’s Josiah Deguara and can see what they want to do with him as H-back/move guy in this offense, I thought they did not get Aaron Rodgers help in the receiving corp, which has no proven commodity outside of Davante Adams. Their defense got absolutely steamrolled in two games against the eventual conference champion 49ers, but I hope to see Rashan Gary develop in his second season and I think Christian Kirksey was a very under-the-radar signing as a run-stopping linebacker. I think schematically with Matt LaFleur’s offense based on what they did under Sean McVay and Mike Pettine being very creative himself they are one of the better coaching staffs in the NFC, but I would like to see them open up the offense more for Rodgers and break tendencies more often with their coverage calls.

11. Pittsburgh Steelers
Another very dangerous squad for me is the Steelers. I have talked many times about how bad the Steelers quarterback situations was last season, as both Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges finished near the bottom in air yards per attempt, percentage of throws beyond the marker and many others. We have only seen Big Ben throw in some short clips on the internet, but if he is just 70-80 percent of what he was in 2018, this team is bound for a playoff berth. There are some question marks with this group of skill-position players, but I expect Juju to bounce back in a major way with a capable QB and being healthy himself, I have already picked Diontae Johnson as a breakout candidate for this season and I like the diversity of this group of backs. Pittsburgh’s defense was already elite last year, finishing top five in both yards and points allowed, tied for first in yards per play (4.7), the most takeaways (38) and sacks (54). If former Raven Chris Wormley can replace Javon Hargreave as a two-down run-stopper at least and rookie Antoine Brooks Jr. (Maryland) can fill a very specific role as their second sub-package linebacker in place of Mark Barron, I think they will one of the scariest units in the NFL once again. So the best all-around defense for my money and an offense who I would say has top ten potential at the very least is a tough match-up. Maybe not quite battling with the Ravens for the North, but the top Wildcard spot for sure.

12. Indianapolis Colts
If there is one team in the AFC that could go from finishing sub-.500 to making it all the way to the conference championship game, the Colts would be my pick. I thought Philip Rivers had a really rough 2019 campaign, in which his arm looked rather weak and his decision-making hurt the Chargers on multiple occasions, but he will play behind by far the best offensive line he has ever had and they will run the heck out of the ball. Indy already had a pretty good back in Marlon Mack, but Wisconsin superstar Jonathan Taylor, who they selected in the second round, will be one of the front-runners for Offensive Rookie of the Year if given the chances in combination with what I believe is the best front-five in the entire league, plus their other second-rounder Michael Pittman Jr. (USC) will be that Vincent Jackson/Mike Williams type target for Rivers. More importantly, with the trade for a top 50 player in the league in DeForest Buckner, this entire Colts D immediately takes a step forward, since he is a perfect fit as that 3-technique in their front and help them disrupt plays at a much higher rate, to go with range in zone coverage behind that, including the “Maniac” Darius Leonard chasing people down. I’m a big fan of Frank Reich and the coaching staff he is has put together, in terms of in-game decision-making, offensive gameplans and just the intensity his team plays him.

Fringe playoff teams:

This middle tier is made up from all those teams who I expect to be at .500 or above, firmly in contention for a Wildcard spot at least. They can be some areas of concern, but overall they have the roster ready to compete with the big dogs and/or feature above-average coaching. With a couple of these there is a change at quarterback and head coach respectively, but they have enough around those to overcome that.

13. Tennessee Titans
This definitely seems a little low for a team that is coming off an AFC Championship game appearance, but people seem to forget the Titans were 8-7 ahead of week 17 and if it wasn’t for the Steelers losing their final three games, this group wouldn’t have even been in position to lock down the six seed. Things were also made a lot easier by their division rival Texans, who sat most of their starters after beating Tennessee two weeks prior. So as impressive as their playoff run was, you have to think of what happened before that and put it into perspective a little. With one more playoff spot in each conference, their chances of making it to the tournament should be at least equally as good, but I believe the Colts are the favorites to win the South and for me the Steelers are the favorites for the fifth seed. With all that being said, there is plenty to like about this team still – they can pound you with the Derrick Henry and the run game, Ryan Tannehill at least gives them the threat of pulling the ball and going deep off play-action, they have some young weapons catching the ball and defensively they are very versatile in how they set up gameplans. I also like the mind-set Mike Vrabel installs in these guys and I was impressed with what OC Arthur Smith did in 2019. If there are two spots that could decide if this group is fighting for a division title or that final playoff berth, it will be their rookie right tackle Isaiah Wilson (Georgia) and recently signed edge rusher Vic Beasley.

14. Cleveland Browns
While I don’t see them competing for the AFC North – just because of how loaded the Ravens are – the Browns are pretty clearly the most talented team that is considered to be third in their division. In terms of their group of starting skill-position players at least, they are near the top of the NFL, the O-line to me already just made my top ten ranking with room to move up, if healthy they are at least in the conversation for that with the D-line as well, with a Defensive Player of the Year candidate in Myles Garrett, and I like how they have assembled their secondary. Now, they have some unproven guys at the linebacker level and Cleveland’s potential is largely dependent on which Baker Mayfield we will get. With Kevin Stefanski coming and installing an offense that will be built on the zone run game and bootlegs off that, where his quarterback is put on the move, I could see much more efficient play and more comfort in that system. Something that really jumped out to me on tape was how many times Baker seemed to not be “on the same page” with his receivers, expecting routes to break off differently and unfortunate drops in certain situations. Even though the preparation for the season does look a lot different and QB & WRs haven’t been able to spend too much time together, I expect this to improve and more suitable roles for those pass-catchers overall. And if they are ahead in more games, that pass rush will be a problem.

15. Arizona Cardinals
There are certainly still some issues here, but the Cardinals are probably the most exciting young team in all of the NFL. Kyler Murray was a one-man show last season and is due for a big jump, with DeAndre Hopkins being added to a receiving corp that severely lacked dependable weapons, to go with some other youngsters fully healthy, Kenyan Drake looked like a different player once he came over from Miami and the O-line should at least be marginally better. Defensively they transitioned a little up front, with big gap-pluggers on the line and Isaiah Simmons being that ultra-rangy player on the second level, who can run guys down on the edges, if those ball-carriers forced to bounce outside, plus they have maybe the most underappreciated edge rusher over the last four years in Chandler Jones. I don’t think they are very deep in the secondary, but Budda Baker is an absolute baller, Jalen Thompson emerged late last season and I already predicted Byron Murphy would have a breakout second season. With Kliff Kingsbury and Vance Joseph, Arizona has creative play-calling on both sides of the ball and they now have the personnel to execute at the needed level as well. Like I mentioned, I was ready to have the Cardinals at least go toe-to-toe with Seattle for a playoff spot, but the addition of Jamal Adams has shifted the balance again to some degree. And if you just go based off my rankings, two NFC Wildcard spots already go to teams from five to seven.

16. Denver Broncos
A team that has been getting a lot of love this offseason is the Broncos. They have pretty much all the pieces that you usually see with those rising squads – a promising second-year quarterback with a lot of weapons surrounding him, a ferocious defensive front and having shown signs late last season. My belief in them has taken a bit of a dump unfortunately since I thought they did well to improve the offensive line, with Garrett Bolles on the left end being the only weak-spot, but now that Ja’Wuan James won’t be available at right tackle for the second straight year (injury last season and now opting out), their duo of OTs is a concern for me. Defensively you have to love what they have in the front seven, with Von Miller and now again Bradley Chubb coming off the edges, Jurrell Casey added to the interior to go with Shelby Harris and Alexander Johnson being an under-the-radar standout at linebacker. I’ve always been a big fan of Justin Simmons, but that second corner spot is still up in the air. I like Vic Fangio and that coaching staff they have put together in Denver, with Pat Shurmur providing a QB-friendly offense, the game’s best O-line coach in Mike Munchak and most of the people that have helped Fangio put out elite defenses at multiple stops before. So the Broncos are still the most dangerous opponent of the Chiefs in the AFC West, but now I’m not sure if they can add some drama over the fourth quarter of the season.

17. Minnesota Vikings
At the same time, a team that has been a little overhyped to me this offseason is Minnesota. While I don’t love how the Packers have operated since February, what have the Vikings done to really improve? They traded away the best deep threat in the league last season in Stefon Diggs, stalwarts on the D-line in Everson Griffen and Linval Joseph are now gone, their entire group of corners has combined for less than 1500 career snaps and their offensive coordinator is now in Cleveland. I’m intrigued by the combination of Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson, who could be pretty interchangeable in their roles and I like their 12 and 21 personnel groupings, but they lack depth at the receiver position. And the defense will be relying on several inexperienced pieces to step in. I mean their three starting corners from last year are off the team now. So I don’t really get how most people all of a sudden put them ahead of the Packers. With that being said, I like the offensive scheme and always thought Gary Kubiak was a huge factor in their success on the ground at least. On defense there are certainly question marks – especially in the secondary – but Minnesota could easily have a top five player at their respective position at all three levels, with Danielle Hunter, Eric Kendricks and Anthony Harris, plus they still have some promising young guys like Ifeadi Odenigbo, Mike Hughes and a deep rookie class. Their only true shade nose Michael Pierce opting out hurts though.

18. New England Patriots
This offseason must have been a rollercoaster for Patriots fans. First, Tom Brady leaves and everybody goes crazy. Then people start getting onto the Jarrett Stidham hype train and talk about how good the rest of this team still is. Out of nowhere they sign Cam Newton for the veteran minimum basically and they are back in the conversation for the top teams in the AFC all of sudden. And now, they lead the league in players opting out of the season, with key defensive pieces like Dont’a Hightower and Patrick Chung, to go with a couple of role players on offense at least. So now they are right at the bottom of these fringe playoff teams for me, because purely based on the roster, they are not even in the top 20 league-wide, but they still have maybe the greatest defensive mind in NFL history in Bill Belichick and one of the best offensive play-callers right now in Josh McDaniels. Obviously a lot of this will come down to what version of Cam Newton we will get and even if he is and can stay totally healthy. Not only is New England the most adaptable team in terms of how they can adjust to personnel and how flexible they are with their game-plans, but Cam is a great fit in that offense, where he can spread the field and make decisions based on defenses adjusting. The one area that took the biggest bump – outside of quarterback I’m guessing – is the offensive line, because they lost a legendary position coach in Dante Scarnecchia and their probable starter at right tackle in Marcus Cannon. While the Pats do have some young players, who can replace part of the losses, they were already more in plan for the pieces that left before there was any virus outbreak.

Around .500:

This broad group of seven teams represents all those franchises who will be dancing around .500 mark in the win-loss column. A couple of teams have the potential to win nine or ten games, while others could see those numbers on the wrong side of the column as well. There are obvious question marks in certain areas, even though they might feature top-tier players and/or coaches.


19. Houston Texans
It’s kind of tough to put a team here that has won its division the last two years, but I think the Texans are pretty clearly number three in the South now. I love Deshaun Watson and I think he has fairly established himself as a top five quarterback in the NFL, but Bill O’Brien just took away an elite wide receiver in DeAndre Hopkins and replaced him with an injury-prone Brandin Cooks to go with another always banged up Will Fuller and a declining Randall Cobb, to go with a David Johnson in the backfield, who was unrecognizable last season. I think the O-line is improving, but outside of Laremy Tunsil maybe, they don’t have anybody other than Deshaun who is clearly above-average in their role. And defensively they finished in the bottom five in yards allowed and tied with Cincinnati (who picked first overall in the draft) for an NFL-high 6.1 yards allowed per play. Hopefully having J.J. Watt back for a full season should help, I like the selection of Ross Blacklock (TCU) on the inside and there are some talented young corners on this roster, who could be better much in 2020. I would not be surprised if they are that .500 team at heart and their quarterback carried them to a couple of wins that they weren’t supposed to get – which we have seen him do many times before – but it’s more likely to me that they are fighting for one of the two bottom Wildcard spots.

20. Atlanta Falcons
Very rarely do you have a team that was among the worst over the first half of the season and among the best over the second half. The Falcons started out 2019 with a 1-7 record, but would go on to win six of the final eight games. Their defense was absolutely atrocious early on last season, with no pass-rush impacting the opposing quarterback and several miscues in coverage. With Raheem Morris taking over the defensive play-calling, they showed a lot of improvement already and there are signs that trend will continue. While there are some questions about the back-end and if they can get consistent production from their rush outside the top two guys, I think Dante Fowler is an upgrade over Vic Beasley, I like Marlon Davidson (Auburn) as a guy with inside-out flexibility on sub-packages and Keanu Neal is back healthy, as that Kam Chancellor-type, who can be that extra defender in the box in their system and punish receivers when catching the ball over the middle or in the flats. Offensively I believe this is still a team that can move the ball – they just have to start doing so earlier in games. While the top NFL receiver duo is in their own division with the guys in Tampa Bay, Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley could easily be that next one. They lost a very productive tight-end in Austin Hooper, but I believe Hayden Hurst can replace at least 80 percent of that production, and while we have no idea what we get from Todd Gurley and his knees at this point, last year the Falcons had one of the least effective per-touch backs in Devonta Freeman. Plus, the O-line should take a step forward with former first-round pick Chris Lindstrom returning from injury.

21. Las Vegas Raiders
To me the Raiders are still in transition, not only moving to Las Vegas, but also in terms of roster construction and the culture Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock are trying to establish. Outside of Tyrell Williams, that entire group of receivers was overhauled, they have a lot of young pieces on the defensive line and the secondary, plus they will have at least two new starters on the second level of their defense. By far the biggest thing they have going for them is the offensive line and second-year back Josh Jacobs running behind it. When I did my top ten offensive lines in the NFL a couple of weeks ago, I had the Silver & Black at number five, and Jacobs was already a top 100 player in the league for me, with how physical and elusive a runner as he is. I could easily see the Raiders finish near the top in terms of ground production, and I also like the young guys they brought in around that, with Henry Ruggs III (Alabama) keeping the defense honest with his speed, Bryan Edwards (South Carolina) as a physical receiver, who will get hands after the catch, and Lynn Bowden Jr. (Kentucky) as that chess-piece potentially, that you can use in a multitude of way. My bigger question here is if Derek Carr is willing to push the ball down the field. Defensively I like the rotation they have on the interior D-line and the two linebackers they brought in via free agency, most notably Corey Littleton. There are still some questions about how snaps will be split between their corner group, but I’m excited to see a full season of Jonathan Abram hopefully. These guys have some attitude and an energetic head coach.

22. Los Angeles Rams
Oh, how far we have come. Just one-and-a-half years ago the Rams were officially 20 spots higher basically, when they lost the Super Bowl to New England. Ahead of last season, I predicted them to miss the playoffs and while they made a bit of a run at it late, that’s what ended up happening. Now I see them as the fourth team in their own division – even though that says more about the competition they face rather than them. I still believe in Sean McVay and his ability to win on paper with play-design and game-planning, but Jared Goff has turned out to be an average quarterback, they don’t have a prime Todd Gurley setting the table anymore and the offensive line had some major issues, for large stretches of last season, especially in the run game. I was very high on Cam Akers, who they selected in the second round out of Florida State, but he will obviously be a rookie with shortened preparation, rather than an Offensive Player of the Year like Gurley was for them. Defensively, they have two elite players in Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey and I like some of the other guys in their roles, but overall the high-end talent beyond the two biggest names isn’t overly impressive. Leonard Floyd might be their top edge rusher and he has always been more of a Robin, they have no proven commodity as stand-up linebacker and I have yet to see if Brandon Staley can actually be an upgrade over Wade Phillips as their defensive coordinator.

23. Detroit Lions
While I was going back and forth with putting the Lions third or fourth in the NFC North, I recently said they are among the top two teams that could go from worst to first in their division and I would not be surprised if they were in the hunt for a Wildcard spot in the last couple of weeks of the season. His second year in a system under Darrell Bevell – where he wasn’t just going in shotgun 40 times a game and asked to make magic happen – Matthew Stafford looked like an MVP candidate as long as he was healthy in 2019. That duo of Kerryon Johnson and my top-ranked running back in the draft D’Andre Swift (Georgia) could be one of the most dynamic ones in the league, the receiving corp is highly underrated and I like those rookies competing for the two guard spots. Defensively, they seem to finally look like what Matt Patricia wanted, when he came over from New England, in terms being versatile with their fronts and having guys who can take on receivers in man-coverage. With that being said, there is also a good chance that the Patricia experiment could go to shambles, if some of the veterans get turned off by his style of coaching without having established that winning culture, and this team has simply been dealing with too many injuries to key players. I don’t think there is much of a gap between the Lions and Vikings for example, but Detroit has not shown the stability of some other organizations.

24. Chicago Bears
A franchise that I don’t really hear anybody talk about – unless it’s their quarterback competition – is that team from the Windy City. I understand that the Bears aren’t really sexy because they lack those superstars on offense that people will recognize, but I’m higher on some of the guys they do have on that side of the ball and on defense they could be much closer to 2018, when they led the league in points allowed and turnovers forced, rather than being just inside the top in most categories last season. A guy I already predicted to break out for Chicago this upcoming season with a bigger workload is running back David Montgomery, to go with Anthony Miller as a gadget player and developing young pass-catcher and one of the more underappreciated receivers out there in Allen Robinson. Defensively, I thought the biggest issue last season was Akiem Hicks missing double-digit games, as a table-setter with his ability to disrupt plays from the interior, and Leonard Floyd didn’t provide much on the opposite side of Khalil Mack, who they upgrade from with Robert Quinn, who just had his best season since the Rams were still in St. Louis. Now, I don’t love what they have at that second safety spot to complement Eddie Jackson, someone will have to fill that second corner spot – even though I’m a fan of second-round pick Jaylon Johnson (Utah) – and nose tackle Eddie Goldman opting out is a huge loss. If the quarterback position can just complement the rushing attack and the defense plays up to their potential, this group could be competing for second in the North, but Foles or Trubisky could still hold them back.

https://preview.redd.it/aep6uj385di51.png?width=1060&format=png&auto=webp&s=07674898e4de7d73699c065907983e69612c56a4


The final tier is in the comments!!

If you enjoyed this breakdown, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece - https://halilsrealfootballtalk.com/2020/08/18/ranking-all-32-nfl-teams-in-tiers-pre-season/
You can also listen to my analysis on the Youtube channel - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zz7WE0epZw8
submitted by hallach_halil to nfl [link] [comments]

2020 Offseason Review Series: The Seattle Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks – 2020 Offseason Review Series

I. Basic Information

Seattle Seahawks – 45th Season, Eleventh under Pete Carroll, Ninth under Russell Wilson
Division: NFC West
2019 Record: 11-5

II. Introduction

Welcome to the 2020 Offseason Review Series for the Seattle Seahawks. I hope you all are safe, healthy, that the scourge that is gripping the country does not affect you in the future. Like everyone, I want us all to maximize our potential to watch the NFL this year, so lets all do our part – wear a mask, wash your hands, don’t touch your face, avoid sick people, and encourage everyone you know to do the same as well. With that said, lets get into this eleven thousand post proper.
After two years of rebuilding “turning” the roster since Pete Carroll jettisoned the Legion of Boom after the 2017 campaign collapsed, the Seahawks entered into the 2020 Offseason with a high bar to satisfy. They have one of the top two quarterbacks in the NFL (the most important position in sports) in Russell Wilson, the best MLB in the NFL in Bobby Wagner, both of whom are on track to be immortalized in Canton when they retire. They have two WRs that would soon be ranked in the NFL Top 100 – Tyler Lockett (65) and DK Metcalf (81). They have their head coach and general manager locked up for two more seasons. The pressure is on to make a deep playoff push sooner rather than later – Pete is the oldest head coach in the NFL and Wagner is on the wrong side of 30.
The issues that plagued the roster seemed easily identifiable and solvable: (1) find additional players to rush the passer; (2) fix the offensive line (a common refrain for as long as I’ve drafted this post); and (3) increase competition for the right cornerback position. Everything looked on track to solve those issues as well – the Seahawks entered into the offseason with four picks in the first 3 rounds, including two second round picks and SIXTY MILLION in cap space… enough to sign, as Russell Wilson called for at the NFL Pro Bowl, a couple more superstars to put the team over the top.
What did the Seahawks do with those picks and that money? That is what we are here to discuss.

III. Coaching Changes

The Seahawks made more changes than usual to the coaching staff than in most of the years that I’ve been writing this column. Most of those changes are localized to the bottom of the coaching roster, as the Seahawks return all six of their Director or higher members of the front office, and all three coordinator positions. Interesting and relevant changes are summarized below:

IV. Free Agency (Players Lost/Cut)

Player Position New Team
George Fant T Jets
Quinton Jefferson DE Bills
Al Woods DT Jaguars
Germain Ifedi RT/RG Bears
Tedric Thompson FS Chiefs
Ed Dickson TE Free Agent
DJ Fluker RG Ravens
Justin Britt C Free Agent
The loss of Al Woods and Quinton Jefferson will be felt – as both played surprisingly well for the Seahawks even though the line itself, as a collective, was probably close to the worst in the NFL. Over 14 games, Jefferson had 3.5 sacks (second for the team overall), had 10 QB hits, had four tackles for loss, recovered a fumble, and deflected three passes. Al Woods did yeoman’s work for the Seahawks, providing a run-stopping solution on early downs when teams chose not to run at Clowney (for good reason), but still managed to recover two fumbles, rack up 32 tackles, and generate three tables for loss and a QB hit. Both have not been satisfactorily replaced, as discussed later.
Taking a step back, one of the things that stands out to me over the many years that I’ve written this post and illustrates how far the Seahawks have fallen in terms of talent is that they used to be so loaded that their castoffs would go on to be starters for other teams. Players like Benson Mayowa, Spencer Ware, Jaye Howard, Robert Turbin all come to mind as players who were drafted and later released by the Seahawks when they were really rolling that went on to have successful careers elsewhere. Looking at the list above, most are not homegrown talent, and out of those that are – Fant, Ifedi, Thompson, and Britt… could we say that it is likely that any of them have a high likelihood of success elsewhere? Maybe Fant, but that is probably wishful thinking at best.
The Seahawks are quite threadbare in terms of starting caliber depth players, which is partially due to the disastrous drafting done by Pete and John from 2013-2017. Gone are the days when the Seahawks releases would get swooped up right after release or snapped up on the waiver wire. V. Free Agency (Players Re-signed)

V. Free Agency (Players Re-Signed)


Player Position
Jarran Reed DT
Luke Willson TE
Jordan Simmons OG
Neiko Thorpe CB
Mike Iupati OG
Branden Jackson DE
Jacob Hollister TE
The highlight of the Seahawks re-signings was Jarran Reed. Reed was re-signed before free agency started to a 2 year, $23m contract that included a $10m signing bonus and $14.1m guaranteed (essentially the entire first year). However, after the contract details came out – he essentially signed a one-year deal because if he does not perform, he can be released with no dead cap in 2021. Everyone else was signed to minimum or RFA deals.

VI. Free Agency (New Players Signed or Acquired)

Player Position Old Team
Greg Olsen TE Panthers
B.J. Finney OL Steelers
Bruce Irvin DE Panthers
Brandon Shell RT Jets
Cedric Ogbuehi OT Jaguars
Quinton Dunbar CB Washington
Philip Dorsett WR Patriots
Benson Mayowa DE Raiders
Carlos Hyde RB Texans
Jamal Adams S Jets
The first signing that Seattle made was to sign Greg Olsen to a one-year, $7 million contract. Olsen, who is now 35, has developed some injury concerns after logging nine straight seasons where he played every game, only playing in 16 games total between the 2017 and 2018 seasons and missing two games in 2019. With a longer than usual offseason with no OTAs, Olsen said that this offseason has been a dream for him, as he was able to give his body extra time to rest and recover.
Brandon Shell signed a two-year, $11 million deal with the Seahawks, who signed George Fant to replace him. Shell played RT for the Jets, and had a 63.6 grade by PFF for the 2019 season, as he allowed seven sacks, and committed five penalties. He looks to be a marginal at best upgrade over former-RT Germain Ifedi, who committed thirteen penalties and allowed six sacks. Ifedi’s 2019 PFF grade was 56.2.
BJ Finney signed a two-year $5.9 million deal. Finney looks to compete for spots at Center for the team. His main competition will be Joey Hunt, so perhaps he could be penciled in as the starter. He has played at other interior O-line spots as well, so his versatility and experience will be key in an offseason shortened by COVID.
Pete Carroll, having exhausted all of the 2013 NFL first round reclamation projects, now turns to the 2015 NFL draft, bringing in known bust Cedric Ogbuehi, who signed a 3.3m one-year deal. Ogbuehi has not played more than 200 snaps in the past two seasons, looks to compete in what could be his last chance to make it in the NFL.
Instead of re-signing Clowney or making a splash move to bolster the pass rush, the Seahawks brought back two former Seahawks – Bruce Irvin and Benson Mayowa in free agency. Bruce Irvin, who turns 33 this season, had career high sacks (8.5) for Carolina. His one-year contract is worth $5.5 million. Mayowa, who just turned 29, had career high sacks for Oakland (7.0). Mayowa’s one-year contract is worth $3 million.
Carlos Hyde signed a 1-year, $2.75m contract in May to provide depth just in case Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny cannot start the season. Hyde underwent surgery in February to repair a torn labrum, but should be ready to start the NFL season.

VII. Free Agency Cost Roundup

Coming into Free Agency, the Seahawks had around $60 million in cap space to use as they saw fit. By the end of free agency, they had spent $53.4 million of that on new or returning players:

VIII. 2019 Draft + Grades

A. Draft Analysis

After Free Agency, the Seahawks entered into the 2019 NFL Draft with four picks in the first three rounds (three natural picks plus the Chiefs 2nd Round Selection at 64 because of the Frank Clark trade in 2019). With basket of riches that the team had rarely had, expectations were high that the Seahawks would address at least one of their two still-glaring needs in the offseason – offensive and defensive play in the trenches in the first round. At this point, the Seahawks believed they had solved their cornerback issue by trading for Quinton Dunbar, who had not been arrested yet – leaving two clear holes with a few chances to fill them.
Let’s look at how desperate the Seahawks needed to be when it came to the trenches. Pro Football Focus ranked the Seahawks at 27th in terms of Offensive Line play following the 2019 regular season. The Seahawks gave up 48 sacks of Russell Wilson, his second highest total in his career, and the seventh straight that he had been sacked 41 times or more. On defense, the Seahawks were tied for second-lowest in terms of sacks in 2019, with only the 5-11 Dolphins having less. According to Pro Football Reference, the Seahawks only generated some form of pressure 19.3% of the time, good for 28th in the NFL and gave up 6.0 yards per play (6,106 yards on defense, total), good for a tie for second worst in the NFL.
Yet, what position did they end up drafting with their most significant piece? A non-rush, inside linebacker. This was after they currently pay Bobby Wagner 18m APY (the Seahawks current MLB), retained WILL LB K.J. Wright for another year (costing the team $10,000,000 against the cap), brought in Bruce Irvin to play SAM LB on early downs (locking down all three LB spots for 2020), and drafted a Linebacker (Cody Barton) in the 2019 third round (the previous year!) to serve as the heir apparent to Wright. Where does Brooks see the field? Did we really spend a first rounder to burn a year of cheap club control to serve as a backup? While the Seahawks did make some good draft choices following the LB pick, spending a 1st round selection on a player that won’t immediately see the field in some capacity (with two, maybe three inked in starters ahead of him) is not a decision that should be lauded in any capacity.

B. First Round, Pick Number 27: Jordyn Brooks, LB, Texas Tech

This will become a broken record by the time you finish reading this post – but for Brooks, I like the player, but hate the cost and the thought process behind it. Brooks is an old school, run stopping, TFL-generating thumper LB. He rarely misses tackles. He had 20 TFLs. The Seahawks were absolutely horrendous at stopping the run last year (full details later in this post). It makes sense. He generates momentum stopping hits and has good burst to chase down the ball carrier.
However, he isn’t going to be as great as Logan Wilson or Patrick Queen in dropping into a zone in coverage or picking up a TE or the RB for man coverage. Queen’s hips are more fluid, and Wilson is much more of a ballhawk. Brooks demonstrated some coverage ability in 2018, but expecting him to cover TE monsters like Kittle on the 49ers or Higbee/Everett on the Rams seems like a recipe for getting burned. In a division with modern high-powered offenses under young head coaches, I wonder about the value of the oldest head coach in the NFL drafting an old-school LB when the league is evolving. Brooks will always be compared to Queen especially, as he was drafted right after him by the Ravens.

C. Second Round, Pick Number 48: Darrell Taylor, DE, Tennessee

As much as I did not like the Brooks pick, I love the Darrell Taylor pick. I just hate that the Seahawks had to give up a third rounder to go get him, even though the Seahawks have a pretty good track record when they trade up for a player (Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Jarran Reed, Michael Dickson) Love the player, hate the cost. Taylor is as close to a prototypical LEO that existed in the 2020 NFL draft, which was not full of twitched up DEs outside of Chase Young at the top. He has the burst off the edge that the Seahawks have been missing since Frank Clark was traded. Taylor has all of the potential to develop into an amazing edge rusher, but he is not refined enough to be expected to succeed right away.
Indeed, when I watched his film and not his highlights where he was able to obliterate non-NFL level talent (seriously, watch him obliterate Mississippi State’s walk-on LT #79), he was routinely stonewalled by the cream-of-the-crop SEC tackles, like Georgia’s Andrew Thomas and Isaiah Wilson and Alabama’s Jedrick Wills, which does not bode well for the next level.
However, if Pete and the rest of the coaching staff can sharpen his physical gifts, he could develop into a monster. He will also need to demonstrate that he can reliably stop the run to be a true three-down lineman for the Seahawks.

D. Third Round, Pick Number 69: Damien Lewis, OG, LSU

I thought the Seahawks got a steal when Damien Lewis was still around in the third, as I had a second-round grade on him. Lewis is a mauler that opened up huge holes in the run game and still provided value in the passing game, especially having to face the five and four-star monsters that most SEC teams have at DT. When LSU were pushing to go undefeated at the end of the year, Lewis was the best guard in college football from Week 11 onwards according to PFF. He didn’t stop there, as Lewis destroyed everyone at the Senior Bowl, winning almost 70% of his 1v1 drills according to PFF.
While it will be hard for Lewis to fight his way into a starting role with no rookie mini-camp, no OTAs, and limited padded practices in training camp, I would not be surprised if Lewis was the starter by 2021.

E. Fourth Round, Pick Number 133, Colby Parkinson, TE, Stanford

Colby Parkinson is a physical freak. Dude stands at 6’7”, has a 32.5 inch vertical jump, and has 33” arms – a massive catch radius. He has stated that he plans to play at 260 pounds, adding around eight more pounds onto his frame. While his straight line speed is nothing that jumps off the page at 4.77 seconds in the 40 yard dash, he was a red-zone nightmare.
His hands are amazing, as he did not drop a single pass in 2019. 48 targets, 48 catches. He wasn’t much of an in-line blocker, but he was willing and gave effort. His stock was sky high coming into 2019 after catching seven touchdowns, but poor QB play from Stanford lowered his stock considerably, especially as he only managed to catch one TD in 2019. If he had seven touchdowns again in 2019, I think he’s an early third rounder.
He looked to be an interesting prospect for the Seahawks but broke a bone in his foot while working out, which required surgery. With the Seahawks tight end room looking crowded, it looks like Parkinson might have to “red-shirt” the year on the PUP list.

F. Fourth Round, Pick Number 144, DeeJay Dallas, RB, Miami

Dallas is a Pete Carroll running back – he runs angry. He wants to get into contact, and push through. Former teammate of Seahawks RB Travis Homer, Dallas will fight Homer for a role as the #3 RB behind Carson and Hyde with Penny starting the year on PUP. Dallas will also compete for special teams, likely on the coverage unit. Dallas was also a converted WR, so has a lot of tread left on his tires and could be a weapon out of the backfield, something that has been lacking for Pete Carroll’s RBs since Marshawn Lynch departed for the first time. Dallas doesn’t have the home run hitting speed that Penny brought to the team, but he has enough to hit a crease and make a big 10-20 yard gain.

G. Fifth Round, Pick Number 148, Alton Robinson, DE, Syracuse

The Seahawks love taking risks on physical gifts. Alton Robinson is a player that has all of the tools (prototypical size, length, power and speed), but had significantly underwhelming tape and a lot of off-the-field concerns. Robinson is a speed rusher that has a ton of juice off the snap and the hips to bend around the corner. If you watch his highlights, he looks like a first or second round pick. His flashes when he turns it on are everything that you want in a speed pass rusher. However, at this point, all he has is the speed rush, as his power moves are nonexistent. Watching his tape further illustrates his inability to re-direct inside as well, where he also looks disinterested (and sometimes outright loafs around) when not called to pass rush – especially if the ball carrier runs away from his side of the line.
It must also be brought up that he was arrested and charged with second-degree felony robbery in 2016 (which led to his offer to Texas A&M being pulled) and alleged to have been involved in another similar robbery in 2015. The 2016 charges were later dropped in 2017.

H. Sixth Round, Pick Number 214, Freddie Swain, WR, Florida

Freddie Swain is a slot WR brought in to compete with Dorsett, Ursua, and others. He also looks to factor in as a kick/punt returner with his 4.4 speed. He isn’t the best route runner, but he made up for that with good hands and RAC ability. With the Seahawks spots after Lockett and Metcalf at #1 and #2 wide open for competition, Swain will get chances to carve out a spot for himself if he can quickly demonstrate that he can be reliable for Wilson.

I. Seventh Round, Pick Number 251, Steven Sullivan, TE/WR, LSU

Pete Carroll loves big targets. He’s always kept a big target around at the bottom of the WR depth chart, whether it’s Chris Matthews, Jazz Ferguson, or Tyrone Swoopes… if you’re big, you might have a shot in Seattle to stick around for a bit. While Pete and John already brought in Colby Parkinson, the Seahawks couldn’t resist doubling up and getting Sullivan, who is the definition of grit. His length (35.5 inch arms), explosiveness (36.5” vert, 4.6 40), and hands are intriguing tools.
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IX. Offseason News

X. Projected 53-Man Roster

XI. Position Group Strengths and Weaknesses

XII. Schedule Prediction

XIII. Offensive and Defensive Schemes

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XIV. Conclusion

I try to be realistic when it comes to the Offseason Review Series, because it is too easy for any writer to predict a successful campaign with homer goggles and the excitement (and subsequent dopamine hit) from offseason acquisitions. I myself have done so in the past – you only need to read my 13-3 prediction in 2017, a year where the team actually collapsed to 9-7. Thus, even when the Seahawks acquire elite talent, I have to take into account whether or not they can quickly fit into the scheme or if the coaching staff will try to force a square peg into a round hole. Who could have predicted that the Seahawks would try to make Jimmy Graham block when he was an elite pass catcher and red zone threat? It took Pete Carroll three years to figure that out!
The Seahawks came into the offseason with two big holes on the roster, but had the potential to make this offseason one to rival 2013 when they put themselves over the top by adding two of the best pass rushers in free agency to add to the one pass rusher they already had. They had the money to be aggressive, but chose to patiently wait for Clowney and let the rest of the market pass them by. They also chose to completely re-build the offensive line in what turned out to be a COVID-shortened offseason, and their timidity in the defensive line market cost them the ability to sign proven, plug-and-play talent like Jack Conklin. Instead, the Seahawks frittered away their $60m nest egg on unproven and reclamation projects. Thus, both sides of the trenches are still gaping holes on the roster, and time will only tell if Russell Wilson can captain this ship and still make magic happen or if those holes in the vessel turn out to be on or below the waterline, and the season sinks. Time will only tell.
I'd like to give a shout-out to Seahawks Twitter and the Seahawks Discord for being consistently awful, /NFL_Draft for hosting some of the best draft conversation, PlatypusOfDeath for hosting this thing, and all of you for reading it. Link to Hub.
submitted by King_Rajesh to nfl [link] [comments]

Can anyone explain Zerodha's physical delivery settlement bs?

I have recently decided to start options trading. I know that SEBI changed the rules from cash-settled to physically-settled last year. But what I don't know is how this is done. And Zerodha's explanation just complicates it further
Please clarify and help out a noob
submitted by rarelygiveshits to IndianStreetBets [link] [comments]

eBay DD Due Diligence, Coronavirus is about to reboot this stock to what it should have been worth years ago

*Authors note* Attempted to post this in WSB but it kept being rejected by the AUTOMOD because it said the title was too long. IDK what the issue is but I am posting it here if that is okay as I spent a lot of time on it. Apologies it was written in the voice of WSB. This is a great stock to buy as well so I think the people on this sub would appreciate the DD. I don't post here much, for those that don't know me I'm the one who posted a very in depth HUYA DD (Now taken down by the WSB mods I suspect because I made a post earnings update talking about some shenanigans) I sold my Huya 10/16 strikes for 800% profit last week. I will leave my options recommendations in the DD. I know Options are not a big thing here but TBH 1/15/21 $85 strikes are a very conservative investment. I have dysgraphia and dyslexia so my writing style can be brutal but the message should come across. *End Note*
eBay could SOON become pound for pound one of the most profitable enterprises outside of gambling and drugs.
TLDR
Bad Leadership at eBay for YEARS
Corona flips the script. Bull Case $180 Bear Case $220 Future Price Target maybe more. We will see how peoples mind changes when we see earnings.
BUY 11 – 101 – 1001 Shares Depending on Bankroll (I like shares on this one as I expect the company to pay dividends) X Multiples of 100 for future CC.
7/31 $80C (These look the juiciest RN)
(8/21 $90C if made available)
1/15/21 $85C
Ebay is an online auction house. Look up your local auction house and spend an evening or day at the Auction. It is fun and will help you understand why previous CEO’s tanked this awesome company with their stupidity. Hammering a Diamond into a square hole.
Worked for an auction house 4 years. If you go to a well run local auction you will see diverse people, successful auction houses have a customer makeup like this:
30% Hustlers and People involved with the auctions (Consignees etc)
20% Rich people (Rich people love auctions and I’m not talking about Sotherbys I’m talking about a normal sized city weekly auction there will be lots of rich people there)
40% Normal people that either like the thrill or value seekers.
10% Poor People.
This is important when we talk about bad CEO decisions. You have to know your audience.
Ebay started out with this dude selling a broken laser printer, Pierre Omidayer. It grew quickly and he brought in professional help. This can be a good thing as founders can get in the way of growth. In 1998 Meg Whitman was hired to be CEO. Her tenure was unimpressive and she was responsible for the first of two massive blunders that decapitated eBay growth.
Ebay was growing and the internet was starting to get widespread use. By the early 2000s people started to talk about WEB 2.0 and for some reason certain people thought that WEB 2.0 meant being fancy. Ebay did a massive redesign that was hated by most people. Broadband internet was in it’s infancy and the focus on form over function was frustrating for low bandwidth users as the fanciness was more complicated and took longer to load. Additionally it stunted the pathway that would eventually appear for mobile growth. The remnants of this design linger today.
Screen Cap of the AOLfication of eBay late 2003 I believe one of the big problems was rendering the menus in AJAX or something similar, very slow to load in that era
Here we can see the failure in line graph form, (These things lag) eBay share price got hammered. One the reasons for the hammering was lackluster earnings, many ebay users attribute this to the redesign failure as it turned off existing and new customers.
Link to image as it loos like this sub doesn't allow embeded images
Project Ugly-ify and Slow-ify eBay looks to have lopped off growth and momentum for the share price. Meg Whitmans tenure at ebay neutered growth.
One could blame Whitman for doing a lot of damage to eBay growth but she will largely be forgotten after you learn about the FLAMING DUMPSTER FIRE OF A CEO that is John Donahoe. In 2008 eBay hired Donahoe to be CEO. This could possibly be the worst hire in the history of all hires.
Don’t take my word for it. In 2014 Carl Icahn said eBay was the worst run company he had ever seen.
Carl Icahn says eBay is the worst run company he has ever seen
Donahoe had series after series of bad decision. He basically went to war with small and medium sellers (eBay’s actual bread and butter customers) and went to great lengths to attract large corporate clients. (The worst type of business for eBay) and run away his most profitable customers.
eBay is a market place.
Donahoe gave steep discounts in fees in order to attract corporate customers.
Companies like Target started to sell on eBays platform. (Most are now gone because within a few short years the internet was mature enough that they could start their own platforms)
Link to no longer existing eBay Target Store
Fee discounts to corporate customers angered existing sellers.
In early 2013 he implemented eBay’s search algorithm (Cassini I believe it was called) Previous to this Algo eBay was just a dumb search engine. With the Algo, eBay could control visibility of items on the site via built in preferences like Best Match. With this Donahoe is about to fire maybe 20% of his most profitable customers and give the Amazon marketplace a flood of new users. This idiot was trying to turn an auction house into the next Amazon. Instead he just put Amazon growth on steroids and shoots himself in the foot.
Cassini was used to ban eBay's customers. DROVES OF THEM
Donahoe decided that any problems on eBay were caused by sellers and he declared war on the people that were his customers.
Enter DSR. Detailed seller ratings was eBay implementation of strict guidelines for their sellers. DSR = 4 categories, each category was rated 1-5 with 5 being good. The system treated 1&2s as a failure.
For Example Customer was unhappy with an item they received for whatever reason. If someone rated a part of the transaction a 2 they would get a ding against their DSR. Problem is they treated all categories the same and the thresholds were very stringent.
For every 1000 transactions a seller had to have LESS than 10 dings in order to participate with Cassini without a search penalty. If the 10 threshold was crossed (Which is 98.9% or less good rating) they would be penalized in the search standing and go under probation. If they crossed 20/1000 or 97.9% or less positive approval rating they would BAN YOU FROM THE PLATFORM.
YOU READ THAT CORRECTLY John DONAHOE in is infinite wisdom decided that sellers with as high as a 97.9% positive transaction rating were disposable. I've NEVER SEEN SOMETHING SO STUPID IN MY LIFE.
I kid you not. Donahoe implemented a system where a 98.9% POSITIVE rating has a penalty and 97.9% positive is a ban. (Check the feedback on tons of Amazon marketplace sellers and you will see how ridiculous a threshold this was) What was even more ridiculous was in the beginning all categories were treated the same. For example Books were treated the same way as used women's clothing. Certain categories like womens clothing were DECIMATED by sellers being banned. People who had been on the platform for a decade and had say a 97% positive feedback selling USED WOMENS CLOTHING were banned left and right. It gets worse, remember how at 98.9% they would put you on probation? Some people called this the DEATH SPIRAL as if you were on probation the new “Best Match” system would lower your search standing. So if you were some poor schmuck who had sold 397 used pieces of womens clothing that year and just 4 of them were unhappy with the experience. You’d go on probation with little to no hope of anything other than the ban hammer. I’ve read many period era messageboard posts of long time sellers in probation trying to do EVERYTHING they could to raise their DSR to get out of probation but had zero visibility with the new algo, they were just left to wither on the vine hoping fruitlessly to turn things around. Most of them didn’t know it YET but eventually as people started putting the pieces together there was no chance of them escaping the Death Spiral. Gaggles of people spent MONTHS trying to save their accounts and eventually most of them realized they were screwed, there was nothing they could do about it because of the Algos. These sellers turned on ebay and took others with them.
If you notice during this time period AMAZON marketplace took off. Daddy Bezo’s had a flood of experienced online traders who simply shifted their operations to the less popular (at the time) and more expensive platform (at the time). It was either that or close shop. MANY CHOSE TO CLOSE SHOP.
The stupidity of all this was the Small and Medium sellers were the real money makers. eBay charges around a 9% fee with a cap of $250 per transaction.
Which is more profitable?
Target selling 50,000 items or 5,000 small to medium size sellers selling 100 items?
The answer is in the nature of marketplaces. Target sells to 5,000 customers and that is the end of the story. Small to medium sized sellers tend to keep the money in the marketplace. User A sells to user B for $100 User B can turn around and take that $100 and buy something he needs for himself or his business from user C, user C can then do the same. Wash, Rinse, Repeat. Target selling $100 is a one way street while Small to Medium users can be a continuous money carousel.
Donahoe in his infinite ignorance ran off many of his prime sellers. Ultimately sellers are your customers as they are the one’s who pay the fees. He jump started his competition whom he was stupidly trying to emulate. The important thing to understand about eBay is their product (An Auction) is easily scaleable and cheap to run
For example this Rolex
costs about the same to service this listing for a rug
The Target deal, illustrated with a bathroom rug
Chasing these corporate dollars was infinitely stupid.
  1. They gave these corporations steep discounts to use the platform
  2. The internet was maturing and we were just a few years from all these corporations having their own web presence
  3. Robbed dollars and eyeballs from your bread and butter. Auction and Store listings of small to medium sellers.
  4. Robs future revenue from carousel customers who return money to the marketplace and gives it to corporate customers who do not return dollars and are using the dollars they make off you to build the infrastructure to replace you. DING DING DING
This dude declared war on some of his best customers and tried to make eBay an ugly corporate shill and would eventually lead to the invasion of cheap Chinese stuff (eBay is now combating that)
We can see the results of his war on customers with this graph. eBay’s growth and revenue was decimated by this idiot and you can see the results once the earnings were reported (Which lagged the implementation of his stupidity)
War on customers displayed via line graph
Donohoe decapitated ebay right during what would have been it’s prime growth years and funneled those customers to his biggest competitor.
eBay can make far more with less because of the nature of it’s bread and butter customers. Many auction enthusiasts are high income types. eBay has better demographics financially than it’s competitors. There is even a fairly large industry of arbitrage where people sell items they source elsewhere (Like amazon) and basically drop ship them off as eBay sells because some stuff sells at a premium on eBay.
eBay CAN make more money per transaction compared to similar industries and can capture a significant amount of money to return within the marketplace. Similar to sales tax, that dollar can bounce around within the marketplace and eBay can take it’s 9% cut every time it switches hands.
Interesting side rabbit hole that arises during the Donahoe years. Donahoe was obsessed with attacking his own customers. This was commonly followed in an industry blog called AuctionWeb and then eventually named ecommercebytes. Run by the Steiner Couple
Here is an article their website published about them getting rid of sellers
They reported on all of eBay’s policy changes and basically called them out for being the giant window lickers they were. It ruffled a few feathers within the organization and now 6+ employees of eBay are being charged with crimes like harassment and stalking. Really a crazy story. DONAHOE is to blame for the policies and culture that allowed this to happen. He should go to jail over just what he did to the share price.
Crazy eBay Criminal Stalking
More Crazy eBay Harassment
During all of this foot shooting was when Carl Icahn said that eBay was THE WORST RUN COMPANY HE HAD EVER SEEN
One of the problems was the incestuous nature of eBay’s relationship with Paypal and the board members who presided over both. They basically spent a decade doing what was best for the board and not what was best for the Shareholders, employees and customers of eBay.
This is now not so much a problem because many of those relationships no longer exist. In the aftermath the other pieces have found increased market value and eBay has been suppressed due to it being stuck with all the burdens of the Donahoe administration and bad perception.
eBay should have been worth more as an individual piece and it’s was the one who took the financial hits.
PayPal Split in 2015
PayPal has a 113 P/E (I’m not saying this is the best metric to judge a company I’m just using it for illustration)
If eBay traded at Paypal P/E it would be worth $660
So what’s the catalyst to the eBay Rocket Ship that is about to take off?
CORONA. Corona is shaking up the whole economy and this shake up will jolt eBay to it’s full potential.
Alexa 90 days, even better at 140 and this growth is against the normal ebb of seasonal business
Over the past 4 months as far as I can tell eBay has increased traffic by as much as 18%+ which is pretty AMAZING for a very mature internet company. Even more amazing when you take into account that this is normally eBays slow period. Traffic is normally on the downturn. YOY I am curious how much busier they have been I'm guessing 45% YOY increase in traffic for the Month of May & June
April May June July are eBay’s 4 slowest months and the July 28th earnings will encompass 3 of those 4 months. During the slowest time of year eBay went from the mid 50’s to the lower 40’s for it’s spot in total Internet Traffic. A HUGE shift against the normal tide of business cycles.
Traffic for last 90 days. Up much more over entire Corona Period the increase looks more bigly when you view 150 days out
I've spent a few hours trawling eBay seller message boards. Within this quarter I have heard of increases in per transactions and a decrease in "Best Offers" which means better margins for sellers and more fees for eBay. I attribute this to Corona disrupting normal supply chains. eBay has been established for many years so boomers when they can’t find something are like "Oh Yeah EBAY." Many sellers report increased sells in business related categories and more aged inventory being sold as parts of the market shift towards online from some of the traditionally Bricks and Mortar industries. eBay has a very successful and well made app. Sellers are seeing increased usage amongst younger buyers/sellers whom are either bored with the lockdowns or looking for side income after losing their jobs. Remember when we mentioned 500 small sellers being worth more than one big corporate client? This will be obtained with an army of people using the app on their cell phones. Corona is going to get the attention of customers they lost over the years as they come back to the platform they remember, millennials and new users when they discover the well made app will come online. I've added the eBay App to my phone it is very good and has very customizable search features.
The Bear case for eBay is even more, if Corona turns out to be worse (It’s not) everything online just becomes more valuable.
So what is eBay worth?
Well it’s a better investment IMO than Paypal
eBay valued like Paypal is worth $660
Mercardo Libre is worth more than eBay (This is a Crime) as it is not even a top 1000 worldwide website while eBay is top 50. Plus it doesn’t even turn a profit. If you have any MELI stock sell half of it and buy eBay in addition to whatever you would buy if you didn't own MELI do the same for PayPal as well IMO.
If eBay was valued like MELI it would be worth Tesla numbers
Mercardo Libre has a 25% bigger market cap than eBay and doesn’t turn a profit. Ebay would be $76 a share just to be on par with MELI and it shouldn’t even be in the same ballpark.
Etsy is just outside of the Top 100 for web traffic and has a 181 P/E if eBay was trading like ETSY it would be trading at $1090 a share
If eBay was valued like ETSY it would trade for $1090
Channel Advisor is a company that grew out of offering services for eBay and while it works on multiple platforms it’s use was born from eBay and it has a 60 P/E
If trading like Channel Advisor it would be worth $363
Corona shifted a lot of users to the eBay marketplace because of busted supply chains. They now have an Okay website and an EXCELLENT APP. This increased use comes during the traditional low tide of eBay traffic and if eBay leans into the coming quarters their revenue is going to skyrocket. Corona was the catalysts to wake everybody up to what eBay could do and what it should be worth. EBAY should be one of the most profitable companies in the US economy with lots of room to improve the bottom line. It has all the pieces.
Like
Selling off some of the MANY side projects under the eBay umbrella
Streamlining Employment
Just this month they are integrating their own payment platform which should add 1-2% more to every sell which is a big deal considering that the average fee is around 9%. We are talking about maybe 20% added to revenue with not much changing. BIG MONEY
Winning back Small to Medium sellers and improving the per item transaction is eBay's ticket to tendie town. All the new growth they are experiencing is exactly what they need and want. They have a good App that can capitalize on the reboot.
eBay has ample room for growth and I suspect the income levels of buyers in the marketplace is higher than competitors like Amazon, Etsy, Overstock, Stitch Fix. eBaY has more people with money paying attention.
New CEO seems to be a bright guy. All he has to do is not SHOOT HIMSELF IN THE FOOT like the Donahoe CEO. If successful eBay will be on the moon mission of all moon missions
MOST UNDERVALUED TECH COMPANY IN AMERICA. As always my DMs are open and I do mercenary stuff. I have my position and I am currently buying shares with a goal of 303 shares before earnings.
I suspect this thing will have VERY little resistance upon takeoff
Little Resistance
BUY 11 – 101 – 1001 Shares Depending on Bankroll (I like shares on this one, I like the company and I'm expecting dividends) Once this rocket settles it is covered call selling time. (This is why you want multiples of 100
You should be at least a 80/20 Options/ Share split. Got to water the seed
Options
7/31 $80C
(8/21 $90C if ever made available)
1/15/21 $85C (Also I'd buy higher but they are not currently available, if BEFORE earnings Higher Strikes appear I would go up in strike A LOT. If earnings are up big this is ONLY THE BEGINNING as this is eBays SLOW PERIOD. Earnings for the fall will be CRAZY if Traffic continues to hold and if it has the normal Santa Claus Tax increase 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
submitted by NewFlipPhoneWhoDis to investing [link] [comments]

How I Learnt Trading & Investing- My Journey.

I often get asked about how I learnt investing at such a young age. I mentioned a brief overview of how I got into investing and learned the tactics. Here’s the story.
The Idea.
I was 14 years old kid eager to make money. My mom gave me an idea of investing in stocks. It seemed to be practical but I knew nothing about it. Later I asked my mom and dad. They knew very little. I called my aunt who trades every day for the last decade. She told me stuff but it didn’t help either.
The Hustle.
I started watching YouTube videos and read articles of investopedia. I understood nothing. It seemed like rocket science. I then bought a book called the intelligent investor.
This book was for pros. I couldn’t read past a couple of pages. A month passed I was still on square one. I heard stuff like sensex, P/E, index, ROIC but I had no idea what they meant.
Next, I watched YouTube videos on particular terms. I watched a video on what sensex means. What was a stock. How it works. Watching animated videos were quite helpful. I knew something.
A few weeks passed I opened a virtual account on Stock trainer and traded a little. I watched CNBC everyday after I came home from school. Soon I knew the basic ticker symbols. And that’s how I learnt investing, at least the basics.
The First Experience.
In August I had the basic knowledge about stocks through YouTube. But I had no idea how to open a demat account and all. My mom opened it under her name through Icici Bank. Finally, on 6th September I bought my first stock. Coal India x1.
I bought and sold random stocks. I mostly made losses. Over time I learned what fundamental analysis was. I watched animated videos on it.
I soon selected stocks on the basis of P/E ratio, profit and sales growth. It didn’t work. I lost big on TATA Motors.
Then finally I read my first book on stocks. It was called Rule #1. I had to read it 2-3 times to understand. It took me a month to read it.
In August 2018, about a year later I saw a video on technical analysis. I never tried to understand it. I watched it. It was about 1.5hrs long. I was amazed to see how one can predict stock direction based on charts.
Over the course of a few months watched over a 100 videos on YouTube about tech analysis since then. I loved the concept of margin. I came home early after my exam and bought my first stock on leverage.
The Downfall.
It was Infibeam Avenue. I shorted it. I made more money in half an hour than I had made in the entire year.
I was soon addicted. Everyday after writing my exam paper I traded instead of studying for the next paper. Soon my exams were over. I had no time. I had to learn how to swing trade. I spent time analysing charts to figure out my next swing position.
Again I lost a ton of money. I knew I had to scale back. So I set aside a small capital for trading. April 2019, I opened an account on Zerodha as the Icici brokerage was too much.
Over the course I read books like- the intelligent Investor, Stock to riches, how to make money in stocks, how I made over 2 million dollars in the stock market and many more.
So videos and books helped me learn more about stock market more than anything. The simplest way to start is just fucking start. If you’ve no idea what to do, just start. Search. Read. That’s how I learnt investing.
The Sharing.
In March of 2019 I decided to write a short blog on investing on a website called Quora. I was surprised to see the organic reach of my blog. Within hours I got over a thousand views. This encouraged me to write more. Over the course of a year, I ended up writing 450 short blogs on investing on Quora and a couple of books.
In July of 2019 I decided to write a book on my experiences. I brainstormed the ideas and after 72 hours of writing and editing, my first draft was ready. I had no idea on how to publish it. After a few more hours of research and designing the cover I finally published it.
After a few months I wasn’t satisfied with my book. It was only written for beginners. I decided to write something detailed for people who have decent amount of experience in investing. So, 15 days and 400 pages later I finished writing it.
It did pretty good. I got over 5000 downloads. It's free (not trying to promote).
The Pandemic.
The pandemic was a great opportunity to learn more. I'd been watching hundreds of YouTube videos (I got 1k+ offline vids lol).
And I learned more about deeper concepts. Like I'm currently learning about option chain and other forms of data analysis.
The Bottom Line.
At first I made a ton of silly mistakes. I lost money. But I kept learning and recently I started making profits consistently.
It's not a rags to riches story, but it's something most people will go through. I'm no guru or expert, I'm just a guy trying to document his journey.
"The more I learn, the most I realise how much I don't know". - Socrates (or some other old guy).
-Vikrant C.
If you read all that, hats off to you. It was extremely long (and probably not that interesting).
submitted by Vikrantc2003 to Daytrading [link] [comments]

Here are some of my highlights and big takeaways from todays AMA. And to Phil, Lauryn, and the rest of the team at CD & SE, thanks for going out of your way to feed our insatiable hunger for content and info!

HUD
The health bar stays up while you are facing enemies but it goes away if you look away, there is not currently an option to turn it off however.
Choosing AI companions Online
Without getting into the weeds, [you and your friends] can select your companion AI to fight alongside you.
If you play with one of your friends, both of you will have a companion AI you've selected, let's call it your first choice pick, play with you. With two friends, so a total of three players, the system chooses between them for the mission. To re-select a companion, or get a new one during play in a team of 3, you swap out your companions by having your friends deselect any preference. If you didn't select a companion, the system chooses one instead. This means in multiple player parties, the system will fallback to any player who has made a choice. Even if you don't specify a companion, the system chooses one so "random please" is always an option. So show off all your companion's cool outfits, skills, or gear by trading out who picks a companion for each mission!
Focus Builds
Yes, you can build your Iron Man with skills in rockets and have perks tailored to rockets play.
Photo Mode
You can definitely snap photos with your friends in co-op. It doesn't pause the game, so take turns as the filmographer and take awesome snapshots.
Mission Level Scaling
Missions scale to the lowest power level in your party, but gear drops to you and your power level with a marginal influence from mission power. The system encourages playing with your friends, and rewards to your current hero power to keep you building your heroes when playing with a wide band of power.
Rewards and Exploration
Rewards follow the same model, some are fixed and some are randomized. I highly encourage exploring as you described (should we be exploring every nook and cranny), there's quite a few things to find in Warzones. Could be rare resources, gold strongboxes or allies to rescue. It's always a risk to go alone however, the fights are meant for a team so going off solo can be risky.
For the most part you can go wherever you want in warzones, there's some indoor areas where you must proceed forward but typically outside you can go anywhere at will. Don't bail on your friends during fights though!
War Zone / Drop Zone / Villain Sector mission variety/length
You will see some variety in the beta but the very long warzones are not part of the Beta. Dropzones are roughly 10 minutes, Warzone missions vary between 15-30minutes and Villain sectors can swing up or down depending on how your team is at tackling the bosses but i would imagine you will spend a good 30mins in those. Our equivalent of raids can certainly take 1-2 hours depending on the team and things like Hives vary depending on their size.
It's a mix of original content which is the majority of the Warzones and missions that have variants. An example of a variant would be a Villain sector which is effectively an AIM base, it could be populated by different enemies and a different boss at the end but use the same environment. You could also have 2 different missions taking place in the same town. Overall though we have Forests, Deserts, cities,AIM bases, the Tundra and more that we haven't even shown yet! Some of the stuff we haven't shown, you saw snippets on in videos. For example i'm not supposed to say anything about more missions that may or not take place in orbit.
Thanks again to Crystal Dynamics & Square Enix for the apparent hard work and care
submitted by hangryGalactus to MarvelAvengersProject [link] [comments]

eBay DD Due Diligence. C-19 is about to reboot this rocketship

eBay DD Due Diligence. C-19 is about to reboot this rocketship
eBay could SOON become the most profitable enterprise outside of gambling and drugs.
TLDR
Bad Leadership at eBay for YEARS
Corona flips the script. Bull Case $180 Bear Case $220 Future Price Target maybe more. We will see how peoples mind changes when we see earnings.
BUY 11 – 101 – 1001 Shares Depending on Bankroll (I like shares on this one as I expect the company to pay dividends) X Multiples of 100 for future CC.
7/31 $80C (These look the juiciest RN)
(8/21 $90C if made available)
1/15/21 $85C
Ebay is an online auction house. Look up your local auction house and spend an evening or day at the Auction. It is fun and will help you understand why previous CEO’s tanked this awesome company with their stupidity. Hammering a Diamond into a square hole.
Worked for an auction house 4 years. If you go to a well run local auction you will see diverse people, successful auction houses have a customer makeup like this:
30% Hustlers and People involved with the auctions (Consignees etc)
20% Rich people (Rich people love auctions and I’m not talking about Sotherbys I’m talking about a normal sized city weekly auction there will be lots of rich people there)
40% Normal people that either like the thrill or value seekers.
10% Poor People.
This is important when we talk about bad CEO decisions. You have to know your audience.
Ebay started out with this dude selling a broken laser printer, Pierre Omidayer. It grew quickly and he brought in professional help. This can be a good thing as founders can get in the way of growth. In 1998 Meg Whitman was hired to be CEO. Her tenure was unimpressive and she was responsible for the first of two massive blunders that decapitated eBay growth.
Ebay was growing and the internet was starting to get widespread use. By the early 2000s people started to talk about WEB 2.0 and for some reason certain people thought that WEB 2.0 meant being fancy. Ebay did a massive redesign that was hated by most people. Broadband internet was in it’s infancy and the focus on form over function was frustrating for low bandwidth users as the fanciness was more complicated and took longer to load. Additionally it stunted the pathway that would eventually appear for mobile growth. The remnants of this design linger today.
Screen Cap of the AOLfication of eBay late 2003 I believe one of the big problems was rendering the menus in AJAX or something similar, very slow to load in that era
Here we can see the failure in line graph form, (These things lag) eBay share price got hammered. One the reasons for the hammering was lackluster earnings, many ebay users attribute this to the redesign failure as it turned off existing and new customers.
Post redesign slow period earnings dip.
Project Ugly-ify and Slow-ify eBay looks to have lopped off growth and momentum for the share price. Meg Whitmans tenure at ebay neutered growth.
One could blame Whitman for doing a lot of damage to eBay growth but she will largely be forgotten after you learn about the FLAMING DUMPSTER FIRE OF A CEO that is John Donahoe. In 2008 eBay hired Donahoe to be CEO. This could possibly be the worst hire in the history of all hires.
Don’t take my word for it. In 2014 Carl Icahn said eBay was the worst run company he had ever seen.
Carl Icahn says eBay is the worst run company he has ever seen
Donahoe had series after series of bad decision. He basically went to war with small and medium sellers (eBay’s actual bread and butter customers) and went to great lengths to attract large corporate clients. (The worst type of business for eBay) and run away his most profitable customers.
eBay is a market place.
Donahoe gave steep discounts in fees in order to attract corporate customers.
Companies like Target started to sell on eBays platform. (Most are now gone because within a few short years the internet was mature enough that they could start their own platforms)
Link to no longer existing eBay Target Store
Fee discounts to corporate customers angered existing sellers.
In early 2013 he implemented eBay’s search algorithm (Cassini I believe it was called) Previous to this Algo eBay was just a dumb search engine. With the Algo, eBay could control visibility of items on the site via built in preferences like Best Match. With this Donahoe is about to fire maybe 20% of his most profitable customers and give the Amazon marketplace a flood of new users. This idiot was trying to turn an auction house into the next Amazon. Instead he just put Amazon growth on steroids and shoots himself in the foot.
Cassini was used to ban eBay's customers. DROVES OF THEM
Donahoe decided that any problems on eBay were caused by sellers and he declared war on the people that were his customers.
Enter DSR. Detailed seller ratings was eBay implementation of strict guidelines for their sellers. DSR = 4 categories, each category was rated 1-5 with 5 being good. The system treated 1&2s as a failure.
For Example Customer was unhappy with an item they received for whatever reason. If someone rated a part of the transaction a 2 they would get a ding against their DSR. Problem is they treated all categories the same and the thresholds were very stringent.
For every 1000 transactions a seller had to have LESS than 10 dings in order to participate with Cassini without a search penalty. If the 10 threshold was crossed (Which is 98.9% or less good rating) they would be penalized in the search standing and go under probation. If they crossed 20/1000 or 97.9% or less positive approval rating they would BAN YOU FROM THE PLATFORM.
YOU READ THAT CORRECTLY John DONAHOE in is infinite wisdom decided that sellers with as high as a 97.9% positive transaction rating were disposable. I've NEVER SEEN SOMETHING SO STUPID IN MY LIFE.
I kid you not. Donahoe implemented a system where a 98.9% POSITIVE rating has a penalty and 97.9% positive is a ban. (Check the feedback on tons of Amazon marketplace sellers and you will see how ridiculous a threshold this was) What was even more ridiculous was in the beginning all categories were treated the same. For example Books were treated the same way as used women's clothing. Certain categories like womens clothing were DECIMATED by sellers being banned. People who had been on the platform for a decade and had say a 97% positive feedback selling USED WOMENS CLOTHING were banned left and right. It gets worse, remember how at 98.9% they would put you on probation? Some people called this the DEATH SPIRAL as if you were on probation the new “Best Match” system would lower your search standing. So if you were some poor schmuck who had sold 397 used pieces of womens clothing that year and just 4 of them were unhappy with the experience. You’d go on probation with little to no hope of anything other than the ban hammer. I’ve read many period era messageboard posts of long time sellers in probation trying to do EVERYTHING they could to raise their DSR to get out of probation but had zero visibility with the new algo, they were just left to wither on the vine hoping fruitlessly to turn things around. Most of them didn’t know it YET but eventually as people started putting the pieces together there was no chance of them escaping the Death Spiral. Gaggles of people spent MONTHS trying to save their accounts and eventually most of them realized they were screwed, there was nothing they could do about it because of the Algos. These sellers turned on ebay and took others with them.
If you notice during this time period AMAZON marketplace took off. Daddy Bezo’s had a flood of experienced online traders who simply shifted their operations to the less popular (at the time) and more expensive platform (at the time). It was either that or close shop. MANY CHOSE TO CLOSE SHOP.
The stupidity of all this was the Small and Medium sellers were the real money makers. eBay charges around a 9% fee with a cap of $250 per transaction.
Which is more profitable?
Target selling 50,000 items or 5,000 small to medium size sellers selling 100 items?
The answer is in the nature of marketplaces. Target sells to 5,000 customers and that is the end of the story. Small to medium sized sellers tend to keep the money in the marketplace. User A sells to user B for $100 User B can turn around and take that $100 and buy something he needs for himself or his business from user C, user C can then do the same. Wash, Rinse, Repeat. Target selling $100 is a one way street while Small to Medium users can be a continuous money carousel.
Donahoe in his infinite ignorance ran off many of his prime sellers. Ultimately sellers are your customers as they are the one’s who pay the fees. He jump started his competition whom he was stupidly trying to emulate. The important thing to understand about eBay is their product (An Auction) is easily scaleable and cheap to run
For example this Rolex
costs about the same to service this listing for a rug
The Target deal, illustrated with a bathroom rug
Chasing these corporate dollars was infinitely stupid.
  1. They gave these corporations steep discounts to use the platform
  2. The internet was maturing and we were just a few years from all these corporations having their own web presence
  3. Robbed dollars and eyeballs from your bread and butter. Auction and Store listings of small to medium sellers.
  4. Robs future revenue from carousel customers who return money to the marketplace and gives it to corporate customers who do not return dollars and are using the dollars they make off you to build the infrastructure to replace you. DING DING DING
This Moron declared war on some of his best customers and tried to make eBay an ugly corporate shill and would eventually lead to the invasion of cheap Chinese stuff (eBay is now combating that)
We can see the results of his war on customers with this graph. eBay’s growth and revenue was decimated by this idiot and you can see the results once the earnings were reported (Which lagged the implementation of his stupidity)
War on paying customers displayed via line graph
Donohoe decapitated ebay right during what would have been it’s prime growth years and funneled those customers to his biggest competitor.
eBay can make far more with less because of the nature of it’s bread and butter customers. Many auction enthusiasts are high income types. eBay has better demographics financially than it’s competitors. There is even a fairly large industry of arbitrage where people sell items they source elsewhere (Like amazon) and basically drop ship them off as eBay sells because some stuff sells at a premium on eBay.
eBay CAN make more money per transaction compared to similar industries and can capture a significant amount of money to return within the marketplace. Similar to sales tax, that dollar can bounce around within the marketplace and eBay can take it’s 9% cut every time it switches hands.
Interesting side rabbit hole that arises during the Donahoe years. Donahoe was obsessed with attacking his own customers. This was commonly followed in an industry blog called AuctionWeb and then eventually named ecommercebytes. Run by the Steiner Couple
Here is an article their website published about them getting rid of sellers
They reported on all of eBay’s policy changes and basically called them out for being the giant window lickers they were. It ruffled a few feathers within the organization and now 6+ employees of eBay are being charged with crimes like harassment and stalking. Really a crazy story. DONAHOE is to blame for the policies and culture that allowed this to happen. He should go to jail over just what he did to the share price.
Crazy eBay Criminal Stalking
More Crazy eBay Harassment
During all of this foot shooting was when Carl Icahn said that eBay was THE WORST RUN COMPANY HE HAD EVER SEEN
One of the problems was the incestuous nature of eBay’s relationship with Paypal and the board members who presided over both. They basically spent a decade doing what was best for the board and not what was best for the Shareholders, employees and customers of eBay.
This is now not so much a problem because many of those relationships no longer exist. In the aftermath the other pieces have found increased market value and eBay has been suppressed due to it being stuck with all the burdens of the Donahoe administration and bad perception.
eBay should have been worth more as an individual piece and it’s was the one who took the financial hits.
PayPal Split in 2015
PayPal has a 113 P/E (I’m not saying this is the best metric to judge a company I’m just using it for illustration)
If eBay traded at Paypal P/E it would be worth $660
So what’s the catalyst to the eBay Rocket Ship that is about to take off?
CORONA. Corona is shaking up the whole economy and this shake up will jolt eBay to it’s full potential.
Over the past 4 months as far as I can tell eBay has increased traffic by as much as 18%+ which is pretty AMAZING for a very mature internet company. Even more amazing when you take into account that this is normally eBays slow period. Traffic is normally on the downturn. YOY I am curious how much busier they have been I'm guessing 45% YOY increase in traffic for the Month of May & June
Rising against the tide of eBay's traditional slow period ebb. At this location on traffic rankings even a 3% increase WITH the tide is impressive.
April May June July are eBay’s 4 slowest months and the July 28th earnings will encompass 3 of those 4 months. During the slowest time of year eBay went from the mid 50’s to the lower 40’s for it’s spot in total Internet Traffic. A HUGE shift against the normal tide of business cycles.
Traffic for last 90 days. Up much more over entire Corona Period the increase looks more bigly when you view 150 days out
I've spent a few hours trawling eBay seller message boards. Within this quarter I have heard of increases in per transactions and a decrease in "Best Offers" which means better margins for sellers and more fees for eBay. I attribute this to Corona disrupting normal supply chains. eBay has been established for many years so boomers when they can’t find something are like "Oh Yeah EBAY." Many sellers report increased sells in business related categories and more aged inventory being sold as parts of the market shift towards online from some of the traditionally Bricks and Mortar industries. eBay has a very successful and well made app. Sellers are seeing increased usage amongst younger buyers/sellers whom are either bored with the lockdowns or looking for side income after losing their jobs. Remember when we mentioned 500 small sellers being worth more than one big corporate client? This will be obtained with an army of people using the app on their cell phones. Corona is going to get the attention of customers they lost over the years as they come back to the platform they remember, millennials and new users when they discover the well made app will come online. I've added the eBay App to my phone it is very good and has very customizable search features.
The Bear case for eBay is even more, if Corona turns out to be worse (It’s not) everything online just becomes more valuable.
So what is eBay worth?
Well it’s a better investment IMO than Paypal
eBay valued like Paypal is worth $660
Mercardo Libre is worth more than eBay (This is a Crime) as it is not even a top 1000 worldwide website while eBay is top 50. Plus it doesn’t even turn a profit. If you have any MELI stock sell half of it and buy eBay in addition to whatever you would buy if you didn't own MELI do the same for PayPal as well IMO.
If eBay was valued like MELI it would be worth Tesla numbers
Mercardo Libre has a 25% bigger market cap than eBay and doesn’t turn a profit. Ebay would be $76 a share just to be on par with MELI and it shouldn’t even be in the same ballpark.
Etsy is just outside of the Top 100 for web traffic and has a 181 P/E if eBay was trading like ETSY it would be trading at $1090 a share
If eBay was valued like ETSY it would trade for $1090
Channel Advisor is a company that grew out of offering services for eBay and while it works on multiple platforms it’s use was born from eBay and it has a 60 P/E
If trading like Channel Advisor it would be worth $363
Corona shifted a lot of users to the eBay marketplace because of busted supply chains. They now have an Okay website and an EXCELLENT APP. This increased use comes during the traditional low tide of eBay traffic and if eBay leans into the coming quarters their revenue is going to skyrocket. Corona was the catalysts to wake everybody up to what eBay could do and what it should be worth. EBAY should be one of the most profitable companies in the US economy with lots of room to improve the bottom line. It has all the pieces.
Like
Selling off some of the MANY side projects under the eBay umbrella
Streamlining Employment
Just this month they are integrating their own payment platform which should add 1-2% more to every sell which is a big deal considering that the average fee is around 9%. We are talking about maybe 20% added to revenue with not much changing. BIG MONEY
Winning back Small to Medium sellers and improving the per item transaction is eBay's ticket to tendie town. All the new growth they are experiencing is exactly what they need and want. They have a good App that can capitalize on the reboot.
eBay has ample room for growth and I suspect the income levels of buyers in the marketplace is higher than competitors like Amazon, Etsy, Overstock, Stitch Fix. eBaY has more people with money paying attention.
New CEO seems to be a bright guy. All he has to do is not SHOOT HIMSELF IN THE FOOT like the Donahoe CEO. If successful eBay will be on the moon mission of all moon missions
MOST UNDERVALUED TECH COMPANY IN AMERICA. As always my DMs are open and I do mercenary stuff. I have my position and I am currently buying shares with a goal of 303 shares before earnings.
I suspect this thing will have VERY little resistance upon takeoff
Little Resistance
BUY 11 – 101 – 1001 Shares Depending on Bankroll (I like shares on this one, I like the company and I'm expecting dividends) Once this rocket settles it is covered call selling time. (This is why you want multiples of 100
You should be at least a 80/20 Options/ Share split. Got to water the seed
Options
7/31 $80C
(8/21 $90C if ever made available)
1/15/21 $85C (Also I'd buy higher but they are not currently available, if BEFORE earnings Higher Strikes appear I would go up in strike A LOT. If earnings are up big this is ONLY THE BEGINNING as this is eBays SLOW PERIOD. Earnings for the fall will be CRAZY if Traffic continues to hold and if it has the normal Santa Claus Tax increase 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
submitted by NewFlipPhoneWhoDis to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

r/ AFL Compendium of History – AFL Collapse: How the Carlton Blues almost built a dynasty, but then accidentally hit the self-destruct button.

Greetings everybody. The topic I wanted to cover for the History Compendium is inspired by SB Nation's Collapse, a really interesting series on how a sports team or athlete can collapse quickly, and go from a strong team, to a weak one. I don't even follow most of the sports they discuss, but I still find it interesting, as rarely does such a collapse happen due to a single event; normally it takes multiple events to truly make it set in, such as Sega dropping out of the console manufacturing business. The Carlton Football Club, after spending much of the 2000s in disarray, seemed on the precipice of success in the start of the 2012 season. They had returned to finals in 2009 through 2011, and had a strong list that was danger to contend with. Advertisements told their fans that “they know we’re coming” and “can you smell what the blues are cooking?”, building on the hype and anticipation many were having. Everyone knew that the list was on the verge of greatness, and one that had 16 players aged 22-25, and was absolutely entering its prime, with coach Brett Ratten, and a squad including Chris Judd, Chris Yarran, Jarrad Waite, Andrew Carazzo, Lachie Henderson, Zach Tuohy, Bryce Gibbs, Jeff Garlett, Heath Scotland, Andrew Walker, Bret Thornton and Mitch Robinson. The common thread between those players and coach? All of them were gone in just a few years.
Blue Velvet, 1995-2001
In 1995, the Carlton Football Club had been in serious discussions with other clubs, including St Kilda and North Melbourne, to merge into a new entity. Things were dire for some Victorian clubs, and the Blues saw the potential in forming a superteam by plundering other clubs players. The AFL was also offering financial incentives to merge, at a time when equalisation payments were nowhere near as high as they are now, and the AFL was actively seeking to reduce the number of clubs in the suburbs of Melbourne. These discussions were scattered to the wind when Carlton finished the 1995 season with a 20-2 record, their best ever, and won their 16th Premiership, putting them ahead of arch-nemesis Essendon as the most successful club in the AFL. Carlton was a strong team for basically its entire history, and it looked like smooth sailing up ahead. But the future was actually more like the Israelite’s 40 year trek to the promised land through a deserted wilderness. The club made finals every year from 1993-1996, and 1999-2001, and appeared in the 1993, 1995 and 1999 grand finals, winning 1995, but losing the others. 1999 was particularly infamous, as the club defied the odds to even be there, defeating heavily favoured minor premiers Essendon to get there, but losing heavily to the Kangaroos. But Carlton was a big club that could seemingly do no wrong, and they fell to the ultimate delusion; that they deserve success.
Blue Monday, 2002-2004
After solid performances in 2000 and 2001, the club’s 2002 season was a disaster, earning the club the indignity of its first ever wooden spoon, something unthinkable for a club used to success and dominance. The many aging star players of the 90s all fell off a cliff at once, resulting in such a massive loss in the quality of the list. However, the future still seemed bright; the club had earned a priority draft pick, and the first two players picked in that draft, Brendon Goddard and Daniel Wells, would have been excellent pick-ups. Unfortunately, the club were a pack of lousy no-good cheaters.
It came to media and AFL attention that the club had been playing four of its players under the table; Craig Bradley, Stephen Silvagni, Fraser Brown and Stephen O'Reilly. Carlton had traded in O'Reilly from Fremantle, but he didn't work out, retiring from injury after just one season. However, the O'Reilly trade would lead to the salary cap cheating becoming known to the AFL and becoming a scandal, and would also lead to one of the greatest copypastas bigfooty will ever produce, courtesy of former Richmond mod Weaver.
Worst trade ever?
That's easy. Pick 16 and 46 for Stephen O'Reilly who played 12 games for you. AND you had to pay him illegally outside the cap. AND he blew the whistle on you. AND you had to pay a fine. AND you got kicked out of the draft and had to recruit hacks. AND it meant that your mulit-million investment in Denis Pagan was a waste because he had no players.
Stephen O'Reilly for - Pick 16, pick 46, $1m fine, pick 1, 2, 17 and 33 in the 2003 draft, pick 1 in the 2003 PSD, 1st and 2nd round picks in the 2004 draft.
I reckon that would have the McMahon trade covered by a couple of laps of Flemington, then a trip down the highway for a run round Caulfield, before a backtrack to run the length of the Moone Valley straight.
Carlton was very harshly punished by the AFL as a consequence. Not only were their priority and first and second round draft picks (Picks 1, 2, 16 and 17) taken away, but they couldn’t trade back into those rounds, as the picks were taken away after the end of the trade period. They also lost their first and second round pick sin 2003, and similarly from prohibited from trading into those round there either, although they did earn a priority draft pick (Pick 2) in 2003. They also couldn’t participate in the pre-season draft, which was a commonly used method of recruiting mature talent in a time before delisted free agency, and finally, received a $930,000 fine ($1.4 million in todays money). The fine hit the club at a bad time, as they’d spent huge sums of money on poaching coach Denis Pagan from North Melbourne, and in renovating Princes Park. Pagan’s hiring would prove a costly mistake, as he failed to accomplish much with a list in a state more radioactive than the Chernobyl dead zone, and the money spent on Princes Park were wasted, as the AFL was moving games away from suburban grounds to the centralised MCG and Docklands stadium. Carlton had already lost $500,000 in 2002, and was forced to take a $1.3 million loan from the AFL. Pagan’s attempt to keep the list afloat ended up being a “dead cat’s bounce”, as the numerous recycled and rejected players failed to prop up the list. The club finally threw up its hands, and belatedly began to invest in youth.
Mr. Blue Sky, 2005-2007
In round 16 2007, a Brisbane team that wasn’t even that good destroyed Carlton 25.13 (163) to 6.10 (46), and just two days after the match, Pagan was fired, and assistant coach Brett Ratten was appointed as caretaker. Carlton was doing so badly that they were in the range or earning a priority draft pick before the first round if they didn't win another game. Then, in what I’m sure is just a coincidence, Carlton lost their remaining six games, earning them a priority pick before the first round of the draft (even though they finished 15th, with Richmond getting the wooden spoon), meaning that they had Picks 1 and 3; they traded Pick 3 as part of the deal for Chris Judd, and used Pick 1 on Matthew Kruezer. Getting Chris Judd was huge in the context of the time, as Judd was the captain of West Coast, and one of the greatest players the game had ever seen. The fact that Carlton could lure him over was a massive coup, and this along with their three first picks in a row, gave many people confidence that the core of a future great side would be in place. The club wasted no time in making Judd their new Captain.
West Coast, who had made it clear that they didn’t consider that any trade could replace Judd, got Pick 3 (which they used on future premiership player Chris Masten) and a young forward called Josh Kennedy, who would later win the Coleman medal twice and also be a premiership player. Debate still rages over who won that trade, as both clubs definitely gained from it.
In 2005 through 2007, the club ended up with the first pick in the draft each year. This was due to earning the 2005 and 2006 wooden spoons, and a priority draft pick in 2007. These three consecutive number one picks in 2005-2007 were Marc Murphy (who nearly went to Brisbane as a father-son), Bryce Gibbs (who nearly went to Adelaide as a father-son) and Matthew Kruezer. The 2007 priority pick proved to be highly contentious, and would be cited as a factor in removing the automatic allocation of priority picks in 2013. In Round 22, both Melbourne and Carlton played against each other with a record of 4-17, and whoever lost would get the priority draft pick; Melbourne would get Pick 19, as they hadn’t earned a pick the year before, while Carlton would get pick 1, as they had. Neither team could finish last, as Richmond had already finished 16th with a record of 3-17-1; the result was a farce, where neither team gained anything from winning, but plenty from losing. In what I’m sure is just a coincidence, the match was high scoring, played with low intensity, poor skills and very little defensive pressure, and Carlton lost, using the priority draft pick on Matthew Kruezer. The tanking was so obvious and predictable that observers and media referred to the game as “the Kruezer Cup”.
Blue (Da Ba Dee), 2008-2011
Chris Judd would prove to be just as brilliant as he was at West Coast, winning his second brownlow medal in 2010, and making the All-Australian team each year from 2008-2011. However, his time at the club was not always squeaky clean. It was revealed that paper and recycling company Visy was sponsoring him $200,000 a year to promote their environmentalism. In what I’m sure is just a coincidence, Visy was also a sponsor of Carlton, and many felt that this arrangement was an attempt from Carlton to get around the salary cap again, except instead of disgusting, brown paper bags under tables, they were using green and environmentally friendly side deals that was clearly just players getting sponsorships due to their high profile. The plan didn’t work, and the AFL revised rules so that such payments from sponsorships are now included by clubs in their Additional Services Agreement, and the AFL has to approve third-party deals now.
In 2008, Carlton improved significantly, finishing 11th with 10 wins. In 2009, they finished 7th with 13 wins, and returned to finals for the first time since 2001. Despite gaining a large lead in the fourth quarter, they fell apart to a comeback from Brisbane in the Elimination Final, and were defeated. They returned to finals again in 2010, with 11 wins, but were narrowly defeated by Sydney by just five points in the Elimination Final. In 2011, the club finished 5th with a 14-7-1 record, their best since 2001, and finally broke through the elimination finals, defeating Essendon 21.23 (149) to 13.9 (87). In the semi-finals, West Coast had a 21 point lead in the final quarter, but Carlton kicked the next three goals to bring the margin down to just two points. Controversially, with time running out, Andrew Walker was debatedly held near the goal square, but the umpire didn’t pay what should have been a free kick. Carlton’s finals campaign ended in heartbreak for the third consecutive year, going down to West Coast 15.11 (101) to 15.8 (98). In what I’m just is a coincidence, Ratten’s soon-to-expire contract was extended to 2013 shortly after the finals win.
Almost Blue, 2012
Early in the 2012 season, Carlton faced their arch-rivals Collingwood, fielding this squad, built over many years, with Kade Simpson the only holdover from the 2002 season. The hype for this Friday the 13th thriller was intense, and had a dope as hell promo featuring Dennis Commetti, a Werewolf and Michael Jackson.
Carlton Round 3 2012 Squad
FB Jeremy Laidler Lachie Henderson Chris Yarran
HB Heath Scotland Dennis Armfield Zach Tuohy
C Mitch Robinson Chris Judd Kade Simpson
HF Jeff Garlett Jarrad Waite Marc Murphy
FF Michael Jamison Matthew Kreuzer Eddie Betts
FOL Shaun Hampson Andrew Carrazzo Bryce Gibbs
I/C Kane Lucas Paul Bower Ed Curnow
I/C Nick Duigan
This team defeated Collingwood, who the previous year had 20 wins and a percentage of 167.7. And not just beat them, they flogged them 18.14 (122) to 9.8 (62). This wasn’t even their best team, as Levi Casboult, Brock McLean and Andrew Walker were omitted. But Collingwood would make the finals that year; Carlton didn't.
Carlton won five of their first six games, but then fell off a cliff, and won six of their next sixteen. What some view as the nail in the coffin was their loss against Gold Coast in Round 22, a team that only won three games that year; this, as well as losses against non-finalists Essendon, St Kilda and Port Adelaide, led to much frustration, and the perceived need to make a radical course correct. But perhaps this desire for a radical course correct should have been tempered with a realistic assessment of the club’s injury list.
Of 48 players on the senior and rookie lists, 20 players played more than 12 games, 21 played less than 12 games, and just seven didn’t play any. This is an especially high rate, especially for a team in the hunt for finals, which would typically try to play the same 22 players each week. For context, 2012 premiers Sydney had 23 players play more than 12 games, 8 played less than 12 games, and 13 wouldn’t play a single game. Matthew Kreuzer (hip), Mitch Robinson (calf), Zach Tuohy (back), Lachie Henderson (groin), Jeremy Laidler (knee), Shaun Hampson (knee), Chris Judd (suspension), Andrew Walker (calf), Jarrad Waite (back) and Kade Simpson (broken jaw) missed significant chunks of the season. Just Bryce Gibbs, Eddie Betts and Jeff Garlett would play every game. The season was also Bret Thornton's last at Carlton, who play his last season at GWS the next year. Thornton had been a reliable defender for years, and would be sorely missed.
Some great enterprises in history fail because of the lack of direction, the perception that everything is fine and nothing needs to chance. Carlton’s inevitable collapse would actually have the opposite cause; the club was already stable, and only needed reflection on what went wrong in 2012. Instead, the club made the fateful decision that would come to haunt their fans for years, and they sacked Brett Ratten despite his contract having another year to go, and hired Mick Malthouse as their new senior coach.
On paper, hiring Malthouse isn’t that bad of a decision; he’d been a senior coach since 1984, coaching Footscray, West Coast and Collingwood, and as coach, appeared in the 1991, 2002, 2003 and 2011 grand finals, and won the 1992, 1994 and 2010 premierships. Unlike many other old coaches, such as Robert Walls, Kevin Sheedy, Leigh Matthews or Dennis Pagan, he seemed just as capable as an old man as he had when he was younger, tactically innovating with the times. In particular, Collingwood was a dominant force in 2010-2011, and was the team others emulated and wanted to beat. On top of this, many felt that his departure from Collingwood in 2011 was unfair. Collingwood President Eddie Maguire had insisted that Malthouse hand over the reins to assistant Nathan Buckley, and after a transition period in 2010-2011, Buckley became senior coach and Malthouse was to be given the made-up position “directing of coaching”. The transition was not smooth, and there were arguments over who was in charge, who had responsibility for coaching, and players took sides in the arguments. Malthouse left, but was raring for the chance of coaching again; in what I’m sure is just a coincidence, with just 40 more games, he’d reach 700 games coached, and was seemingly close to breaking Jock McHale’s 64-year record of most senior games coached (indeed, he’d exceed it in 2015, and set a new record of 718 games).
Electric Blue, 2013
Despite Carlton’s hiring of Malthouse to get them into the top 8, he failed to do so, and they finished ninth. Despite this, they still made finals, as Essendon, who would have finished 7th, were expelled from the finals as punishment for their supplements program, just the start of the long and drawn out supplements saga. The result was that Port Adelaide and Carlton were bumped up into 7th and 8th place, and Carlton qualified for finals in the most bizarre way since Fitzroy did in 1916 despite finishing last (the 1916 had just 4 teams due to the first world war, and all of them qualified for finals; Fitzroy ended up winning the premiership as well).
Carlton went up against one of their greatest historical rivals, Richmond, who had qualified for finals for the first time 2001 after having their own on-field and off-field issues. Surely Richmond would wipe the floor with Carlton? After all, they weren’t even meant to be there. However, just like the 1999 Preliminary Final, and the 2019 AFLW Preliminary Final, Carlton has the annoying habit of winning finals they have no right to be in, and in the shock result of the year, Carlton defeated Richmond in a last quarter comeback. Richmond, the club many derided for regularly placing 9th (since their 1982 grand final appearance, they finished 9th in 1994, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2006 and 2008) and just missing finals, had finally returned to finals, and then were defeated by a team that finished 9th, in what is possibly the greatest of ironies in sports history. As a supporter of the other sash team, I miss the days when Richmond was a joke. Carlton’s surprise finals campaign ended the next week, when they were defeated by Sydney in the semi-finals.
The off-season saw the club delist Jeremy Laidler, who was then signed by Sydney as a delisted free agent and played for another three years. According to Laidler “It was tough but I just wasn’t in Mick’s (Malthouse) plans and I just had to move on and I couldn’t be happier with where I’ve ended up.” Then, Eddie Betts, a generational small forward, left as a restricted free agent to Adelaide. Adelaide’s contract offer wasn’t much higher than what he was already receiving, and was happy to stay at Carlton, but Adelaide’s offer wasn’t matched, so he walked to Adelaide and became one of the game’s most iconic players. While he would eventually be traded back in 2019, he spent five of his best seasons at a different club. Betts later said that leaving Carlton was “the hardest decision I had to make in my life”.
Mitch Robinson would later say on his podcast to Betts that “I know for a fact that a lot of players, including myself, Jeffy (Garlett), (Chris) Yarran, Dennis Armfield, we all just felt shattered when you left” and admitted that the Blues “went off the rails” afterwards. He was so shattered by his departure, as were many other players that Robinson even looked into moving to Adelaide too in order to keep playing with him. Betts’ departure had another nail in the toblerone; he was well aware of what his departure could mean to the other indigenous players on the list, such as Chris Yarran and Jeff Garlett, who both went through personal troubles in the years after his departure.
Meanwhile, Carlton didn’t get compensation for either Betts or Laidler, as they signed Dale Thomas as a restricted free agent from Collingwood; if a club that loses a free agent gains a free agent, then they are not entitled to compensation. Dale Thomas was one of Malthouse’s favourites from his time there, and it was clear to outsiders that he was playing favourites, highly rating players like Thomas, and massively underrating players like Betts and Laidler; indeed, Thomas ended up being the second-highest paid player on the team. The club also traded out Shaun Hampson, who was a decent ruckman, and whose rucking freed Kruezer to be a key forward. What could have been a disastrous draft was salvaged by two players; they traded in Sam Docherty from Brisbane, and drafted Patrick Cripps, their current co-captains.
Goodbye Blue Sky, 2014
Carlton’s 2014 season was a whirlwind. After starting 0-4, they ended up 4-5 before their bye. Finals was still in reach, but the prospect of finals was like fruit and water in front of Tantalus, so close yet so far away, and they finished the season with a record of 7-14-1, and finished 12th.
Malthouse’s game plan was mis-matched with the skills of the players he had; this is a mistake coaches have made many times at many different teams. Some coaches think they must make their team play the way they want them to, rather than crafting a game plan that uses the strengths of the players currently on the list. Malthouse’s old-school, tough and uncompromising persona as coach crushed the confidence of players like Mitch Robinson, Jarrod Garlett, Troy Menzel and Chris Yarran. Robinson would reflect on his time at Carlton under Malthouse as unenjoyable, losing much of his passion to play football and dreading coming to work. In Yarran’s case, he developed severe mental health issues, and would quit from the AFL a few months after being traded to Richmond in 2015. His personal life later took a dark turn, and he developed a crystal meth addiction and would go to prison in 2019 after going on what the foxsports delicately called “a meth-fuelled crime spree”.
In August 2014, Mitch Robinson, Jeff Garlett, Garlett’s brother Gerald and Garlett’s friend Matthew Johns got in a brawl outside a Melbourne nightclub. Garlett, who had apparently tried to jump into a taxi that already had two women in it, caused an incident that led to a brawl with their three male friends. Garlett was knocked unconscious and Robinson was king hit, knocked to the ground, and kicked several times, getting multiple bruises and a fractured eye socket before he was able to get up and run away. Making things worse, Robinson tried lying about what had happened to the club, saying that his injuries were from a boxing session at training, a lie that was quickly undone. Robinson had earlier gotten in a drunken fight at the Big Day Out festival in 2013, and the club was through with him. All three of the attackers were sentenced to community service for assault, but the incident served to cloud the club’s perception of the two players.
In the aftermath of this fight, Jeff Garlett was traded to Melbourne for peanuts, and Mitch Robinson was delisted. Garlett would have a decent five years left in his career, while Robinson would end up going to Brisbane as a delisted free agent and in his first season won their best-and-fairest, would turn his life around, and is now one of their most important players and leaders. These weren’t even the worst deals that they made in 2014.
Jarrad Waite left to North Melbourne as an unrestricted free agent. Waite was a father-son player (Vin Waite played in Carlton’s 1970 and 1972 premierships), and experienced old hand who was still best 22 quality, and was an important key forward, being their leading goalkicker in 2014, and North Melbourne’s in 2015. Waite’s contract had ended, and he decided to exercise his rights as a free agent after 12 years at Carlton, who didn’t get any compensation due to his age and the size of contract he received from North Melbourne. Once again, three good, important players were discarded by a club that for some reason drastically underestimated their value, and they would later suffer for it.
In the worst of their deals that season, they traded their first draft pick, Pick 7, for Kristian Jaksch, Mark Whiley and Pick 19 from GWS. The trade isn’t that bad in theory, as some clubs could find themselves in a situation where they’d prefer two players and a later pick to an early pick, but Jaksch and Whiley would be complete busts, and would both be gone by 2017. Pick 19, which could have been used on someone like Toby McLean or Hugh Goddard, was used on 21 year old Blaine Boekhurst, who lasted three years and 25 games. None of the players Carlton drafted in 2014 remain at the club today; the only one still playing in the AFL, Billy Gowers, was a rookie pick who would be delisted, picked up by the Western Bulldogs, and be their leading goalkicker in 2018. The four players they picked in the national draft played a combined 32 games, and two never even debuted, which cruelly denied us that chance for BT to commentate a game featuring Dillon Viojo-Rainbow.
Carlton’s 2014 draft is possibly the worst in recent memory, with the only upside being Liam Jones, who they traded in as a key forward, but ended up reinventing himself as a defender. Also, the pick they traded for him was used on premiership player Caleb Daniel. So their one positive was by complete accident, and debatably a worse decision than drafting Daniel. The 2014 draft was Shane Roger’s last as list manager, and he would be replaced by Carlton and AFL fullback of the century Stephen Silvagni.
It's All Over Now, Baby Blue, 2015
In front of the press before the start of the home-and-away season, Malthouse announced that;
I shouldn’t say this in front of the cameras, but it’s very, very difficult to see where we’re going to lose a game… I can’t see it. I’m an optimist. I look at them at think: ‘Gee, they’re a good bunch of kids’, I love them and I reckon they can get the best out of themselves and we can have a damn good year.
Such optimism lasted not very long after the pre-season, and Carlton had an even more dismal start to the season than the year before; by round 8, the club sat at the bottom of the ladder with a record of 1-7. These included a four losses by 69 points or more.
Despite the previously held optimism, Chief Executive Steven Trigg and President Mark LoGiudice publicly declared that the club was rebuilding not long into the season. On May 25, the Monday after round 8, it was announced that Malthouse’s position would be reviewed by the round 11 bye week. But they didn’t need to wait that long. The next day, Malthouse had an interview on SEN 1116, and openly criticised the way the club was run. Much like Joss Whedon after people saw the cinematic whatever Alien Resurrection, none of this was his fault, it was clearly everyone elses, blaming poor performances on the talk of rebuilding. “I will not be standing down,” he said on SEN. Asked if that meant he would have to be sacked, he answered “Either that or they reappoint me”. That afternoon, Malthouse’s contract was terminated. John Barker took over as the caretaker coach, and the club didn’t do much better, finishing with a record of 4-18.
The combination of multiple good players leaving for nothing in 2013-2014, the aging stars on the list suddenly retiring or about to be retired, the mostly poor drafting from 2008-2014, and the loss of coach and confidence in the playing group meant that the club was forced to take drastic action, and in the 2015 draft, Carlton did the best thing they could; acknowledge that the list was in complete disrepair, and set about fixing it in one of the most comprehensive rebuilds a side as ever seen. A club that had already seen many of its players depart under Malthouse saw many retirements and delistings, traded out Lachie Henderson, Tom Bell, Chris Yarran and Troy Menzel, and hit the draft hard. Chris Judd, David Ellard and Andrew Carazzo retired not with Carlton’s seventeenth premiership, but with its fourth wooden spoon.
The Real Folk Blues, In Summary
Malthouse’s time in charge of the Carlton football club was so incredibly awful, so impossibly destructive, and so unbelievably devastating, that some believe he was sent there as a Collingwood plant to ruin them, as few find it possible that a coach with a resume like Malthouse could possibly take an in its prime list, and shred it utterly in just three seasons by accident.
Many of the issues Carlton faced in 2015, if on their own, could have been dealt with; an ill-suited coach can be replaced, aging retired stars can give way to younger players, players leaving can be traded for good value. But the dominoes that had piled up for years fell down like a house of cards, and it was checkmate for the potential dynasty of the Carlton Blues.
The club’s drafting was exposed as flawed; they hadn’t drafted a great many skilled players since they’d acquired Judd and Kruezer in 2007. In 2005-2007, other than each year’s first pick, the only players they drafted who would play more than 50 games for Carlton were Paul Bower and Dennis Armfield. Their 2008 draft was actually quite good, as they drafted Mitch Robinson and Chris Yarran. But following this, Sam Rowe was the only player they drafted in the national draft from 2009-2012 would play more than 50 games at Carlton. In fact their best players they’d drafted in this time, Zach Touhy, Levi Casboult and Ed Curnow, were bizarrely all drafted in the rookie draft instead of the national draft.
In the 2015-2017 drafts, Carlton moved on a total of 42 players, including best 22 level Zach Tuohy and Bryce Gibbs, in an effort to rebuild again. And while this rebuild is slowly paying off, it meant the club endured more years of pain and heartache, as well another wooden spoon, and the knowledge that if they’d steadied the ship when they had the chance, then none of this would have needed to happen. Fans used to a powerful club that hadn’t won a single wooden spoon from 1897-2001 were now having to comprehend supporting a club that had suddenly acquired five in the next 18 (2002, 2005, 2006, 2015, 2018).
In the modern AFL, senior coaches rarely get second gigs, unlike other sports where coaches or managers having careers in charge of multiple clubs isn’t out of the ordinary; in the AFL, if you’re let go, then you’re toxic waste, and were clearly fired because you weren’t good enough. However Brett Ratten, in defiance of modern hiring practices, did get another senior coaching gig, and is currently the coach of St Kilda. The fact that Ratten got hired when other talented ex-coaches weren’t goes to show just how strong the perception is that it was a mistake it was for Carlton to fire him.
Many seem to have forgotten the 2008-2013 era of Carlton being decent, lumping it with the period of poor performances on either side of it, but Carlton in 2012 was a team on the verge of becoming something amazing. But a combination of poor recent drafts, an aging list, poorly timed injuries, a fractured playing group, a greedy and impatient administration, and an incredibly bad choice of senior coach would lead to the team stumbling at the last hurdle, and its fans, bereft of success, would find themselves waiting again, in sadness. I guess that’s why they call them the Blues.
Players on Carlton’s list in 2012 still at Carlton as of 2020 season
Players on Carlton’s list in 2012 not at Carlton as of 2020 season
I hope people enjoyed this AFL Collapse. I'm keen on possibly writing more, such as St Kilda's collapse after the 2010 grand final, and Sydney in the late 1980s. I also want to know if there's anything innaccurate in the post, or anything I missed that would be useful information to have. I've also written collapse articles on Brisbane after their threepeat, and Essendon after the 2001 Grand Final.
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How to place- SELL ORDER/ TARGET ORDER/Square off in 5PAISA ANDROID APPLICATION. What Is Square Off In Share Market Intraday Trading - Margin - Square Off-31.01.2018 What is Squaring off ?-Stock Market Basic How to square off your position

In case value of the stock price offered falls beneath the purchase price, the broker will request the customer to add extra margin to hold the position in margin trading. In a scenario when customer is unable to allocate extra margin, the broker square-off the stocks position to protect himself from risk due to fall in stock price. Definition: Squaring off is a trading style used by investors/traders mostly in day trading, in which a trader buys or sells a particular quantity of an asset (mostly stocks) and later in the day reverses the transaction, in the hope of earning a profit (price difference net of broker charges and tax). Description: For example: Person A buys 100 shares of Reliance from the BSE Sensex through a Margin Intraday Square up (MIS) – As the name suggests, MIS orders are intraday orders and needs to be squared off during the same trading day. If the order is not squared off by the user or converted into other order types, the RMS system shall automatically square off the order a few minutes before the market close. The auto square off for Margin Intraday Square Off (MIS) as a product code is used for trading Intraday Equity, Intraday F&O, and Intraday Commodity Trading.You enjoy additional margin using the MIS product code . At Asthatrade we provide up to 40x times leverage based on what stock you are trading in equity segment. All the positions under the Margin Intraday Square Off (MIS) product code will get automatically Based on market volatility, intraday square off timings can change at the discretion of our risk management team. It is typically between 3.15 PM to 3.20 PM for Equity, 3.25 PM for F&O, 4.45 PM for currency and 25 minutes before market close for commodities. You can follow this bulletin to be informed of any advances in the auto square-off timings.

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How to place- SELL ORDER/ TARGET ORDER/Square off in 5PAISA ANDROID APPLICATION.

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